气候变化影响与风险研究的理论范式和方法体系

以全球变暖为主的气候变化将会在本世纪持续,针对气候变化影响与风险而采取适应和减缓措施,得到了国际社会的广泛认同。然而,气候变化影响与风险研究领域理论和方法并不规范,研究结果缺乏可比性。基于科学哲学家库恩提出的理论范式和构造范式概念,梳理、集成气候变化影响与风险研究的"脆弱性-要素分离-不确定性-风险"理论框架,总结相应的方法体系包括实地观测与科学实验、数值模型和统计方法、风险定量化评估框架等。气候变化影响与风险研究应遵循理论范式"四要素"的逻辑关系,综合运用多种分析方法,力求相关研究的整体性和系统化,以利增强气候变化影响与风险研究的科学性及其成果的应用指导意义。

Theory paradigm and a methods system for research on climate change impacts and risks

Adaptation and mitigation measures against climate change impacts and risks, especially global warming threats, have been widely accepted by the governments, scientists, and organizations. However, theories and methods for assessing climate change impacts and risks are not standardized, causing incomparable results for different sectors. Based on the conception of social and structural paradigms developed by Kuhn, this study first proposed the theory paradigm for research on climate change impacts and risks according to the logical ideas of "Vulnerability Separation Uncertainty Risks," and then summarized the corresponding analysis methods, including observations, experiments, models, statistics, and the framework of quantified risk assessment. Furthermore, based on the transferring logic of the four components of theory paradigm, systematic research on the climate change impacts and risks can be accomplished with synthetic application of different analysis methods. This study could be helpful in the advancement of studies on climate change impacts and risks, and enhance their application in tackling climate change.