气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究进展

近百年来,全球气候系统正经历着以全球变暖为主要特征的显著变化。研究海岸带系统对气候变化的响应机制,评估气候变化对海岸带社会、经济和生态的潜在影响,提出切实可行的应对策略,是保障海岸带系统安全的重要前提。回顾了IPCC的四次评估报告,分析了全球气候变化对海岸带的影响。总结了海岸带脆弱性评估框架以及脆弱性评价指标体系,综述了国内外气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究的进展。在综述国内外该领域研究进展的基础上,展望了气候变化影响下海岸带脆弱性评估研究。全球气候变化及其对海岸带的影响还有大量的科学技术问题需要进一步探讨,同时也需要对各种适应气候变化措施的可行性和有效性进行研究和验证。

Research into vulnerability assessment for coastal zones in the context of climate change

Over the past century, the global climate system has experienced significant modification, due to the impacts of increased greenhouse gas concentrations resulting in global warming, the associated melting of polar and alpine glaciers and changes in ocean currents. Coastal areas are vital economic hubs in terms of settlement, industry, agriculture, trade and tourism, as well as being of great environmental significance. Studying the response mechanisms of coastal systems to climate change and assessing related potential socio-economic impacts are vital prerequisites for proposing feasible adaption and mitigation strategies. This paper reviews the historical assessments and reports produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the potential impacts of climate change on coastal systems that have been outlined. Based on definitions of vulnerability, the conceptual framework and the derivation of various vulnerability index systems for coastal impact assessment under climate change are reviewed and summarized. By reviewing the studies worldwide on vulnerability assessment for coastal zones under climate change, the perspectives in this field are discussed. A large number of scientific questions related to global climate change and its impacts on coastal zones need to be answered. At the same time, the feasibility and effectiveness of various mitigation measures need to be studied and verified.