县域土地利用变化下生态系统服务价值损益预测——以重庆市巴南区为例

土地利用/覆被变化是全球变化的研究热点，评估县域土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值损益的影响对促进生态环境保护和推动城乡区域协调发展具有重要意义。基于重庆市巴南区2000年以来连续5期遥感影像及CLUE-S模型，量化土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值的影响并预测2020-2030年服务价值损益的时空动态。结果表明2000-2020年巴南区土地利用变化主要表现为耕地持续转化为其他用地类型和林地面积的大幅增长，该趋势将在未来10年内延续。2000-2030年耕地占巴南区面积的比例下降了39.58%，而林地占比将增长28.86%并在2025年后取代耕地成为最主要的地类；建设用地、水域和未利用地面积占比分别增长8.29%、2.25%和0.18%。土地利用类型变化下巴南区生态系统服务价值在2000-2020年由11.69亿元增长到27.64亿元，并将持续增长至2030年的30.19亿元。耕地和林地转化为建设用地、耕地转化为林地（尤其是转化为针叶林和针阔混交林）分别是服务价值损失及增益的主要方式。2000-2030年巴南区生态系统服务价值总损失0.58亿元、总增益19.09亿元，净增益18.50亿元。土地利用结构变化和生态系统服务当量因子价值升高分别贡献了净增益的70.96%和29.04%。巴南区生态系统服务价值损益与地形密切相关。2000-2030年间巴南区生态系统服务价值由匀质分布逐渐形成北低南高的发展格局；价值损益在全局和局域尺度上均呈现出显著的正向空间自相关特性。巴南区现有的土地利用模式能够兼顾经济发展及生态环境保护两方面的需求。未来需要继续实行生态保护工程、合理规划城市用地边界、严守耕地红线以推动城乡区域协调发展。

Prediction of profit and loss of county-scale ecosystem service values under land use change: A case study of Banan District, Chongqing

Land use/cover change is a hot issue in the global change field, and it is of profound significance to assess the impact of county-scale land use change on ecosystem service values to promote eco-environmental protection and evolve the coordinated development of urban and rural areas. Based on CLUE-S model and five consecutive remote sensing images of Banan District of Chongqing from 2000 to 2020, this study predicted the spatial-temporal dynamics of the profit and loss of ecosystem service values under land use change in the next 10 years, quantified the effect of land use change on the service value. The results showed that the dominant land use change in Banan District was continuous conversion of farm land to other land types with forest area increasing significantly, and this trend would continue for the next 10 years. From 2000 to 2030, the proportion of farm land in Banan District will decrease by 39.58%, while the proportion of forest land will increase by 28.86% and will replace the farm land as the most main land use type after 2025. The proportions of construction land, water area and unused land area will increase by 8.29%, 2.25% and 0.18%, respectively, during the simulation. Ecosystem service value of Banan District increased from 1.169 billion RMB to 2.764 billion RMB from 2000 to 2020, and would continue to increase till 2030 by 3.019 billion RMB. The conversions of both farm land and forest land into construction land, and the conversion of farm land into forest land (especially the conversion of farm land into coniferous forest and coniferous and broad-leaved mixed forest) are main paths of the loss and gain of service values, respectively. From 2000 to 2030, ecosystem service value of Banan District will totally lose 0.058 billion RMB and will totally gain 1.909 billion RMB at the same time, which leads to a net increment of gain by 1.850 billion RMB. Changes of land use structure and the increment of the values of equivalent factors contribute 70.96% and 29.04% of the net gain values, respectively. The profit and loss of ecosystem service values in Banan District are closely linked to the topography. The values of ecosystem service in Banan District gradually form a development pattern of lower in the north and higher in the south from 2000 to 2030. The profit and loss of service values in Banan District have significantly spatial autocorrelation characteristics at both global and local scale, with low values concentrated in the northwestern part with low-altitude, while high values concentrated in the central-south and southeastern regions with high-altitude. The existing land use pattern of Banan District can take into account both economic development and eco-environmental protection needs. There is still a need to carry out ecological engineering continually and design the urban land boundary rationally, as well as strictly observe the red line of cultivated land to promote the coordinated development of urban and rural areas in the future.