西沙珊瑚礁生态系统完整性评价与动态仿真模拟研究

以中国西沙珊瑚礁生态监控区为例，从生态系统完整性视角出发，结合珊瑚礁功能群组与环境变化的多重反馈效应，运用系统动力学方法构建了西沙珊瑚礁生态系统动态诊断模型，并通过基础情景和典型干扰情景（捕捞活动、陆源沉积、长棘海星（Acanthaster planci）暴发）的模拟过程，分析该生态监控区2010-2050年生态系统完整性的发展趋势及演变机理。结果显示：（1）系统动力学与生态系统完整性评价方法的整合，为珊瑚礁生态系统完整性的定量研究提供了一种可行性的方法；（2）珊瑚礁生态系统各效应指数中累积效应的变化最为明显，2010-2050年指数最大增长17.2，年均增长率约为1.2%，综合完整性指数在波动变化中稳步上升，珊瑚礁受损程度由中受损向中、低受损转变；（3）不同状态的珊瑚礁生态系统完整性，在其演化的不同阶段各有差异性，并且这种差异通常随时间推移才逐渐放大；（4）无论何种情景下，珊瑚礁生态系统都具有一定的恢复能力，尤其处于系统演化的释放重组阶段（2035-2040年），生态系统的不稳定将创造了一定的可恢复性。研究结果对于分析西沙珊瑚礁生态系统的整体演化过程提供了理论借鉴，也为我国后续的珊瑚礁生态系统适应性修复理论模式研究提供了重要的基础。

Integrity evaluation and dynamic simulation of Xisha coral reef ecosystem

Taking Xisha coral reef ecological monitoring area as an example, from the perspective of ecosystem integrity, combined with the multiple feedback effects of coral reef functional groups and environmental changes, this paper constructs a dynamic diagnosis model of Xisha coral reef ecosystem by using the method of system dynamics. The development trend and evolution mechanism of ecosystem integrity of the ecological monitoring area in 2010-2050 were analyzed through the simulation process of basic scenario and typical interference scenarios (fishing activity, terrigenous deposition, and crown-of-thorns starfish outbreak). The results show that:(1) the integration of system dynamics and ecosystem integrity assessment method provides a feasible method for the quantitative study of coral reef ecosystem integrity. (2) The changes in the cumulative effects of the various effect indexes of the coral reef ecosystem are the most obvious. From 2010 to 2050, the index will increase by 17.2, with an average annual growth rate of about 1.2%. The comprehensive integrity index has steadily increased in fluctuations, and the degree of coral reef damage has changed from damage to medium and low damage.(3) The ecosystem integrity of coral reefs in different states is different at different stages of their evolution, and this difference is usually amplified over time. (4) In any case, the coral reef ecosystem has a certain ability to recover, especially in the stage of release and reorganization of the system evolution (2035-2040). The research results provide a theoretical reference for the analysis of the overall evolution process of the Xisha coral reef ecosystem, and also provide an important basis for the subsequent research on the adaptive restoration theory of the coral reef ecosystem in China.