黑线仓鼠种群数量动态预测研究

１９８４－１９９１年３－１０月，每月中旬在中国农科院草原研究所试验场的不同牧草和作物地进行调查，１９８４－１９９１年共捕获鼠４０９３只，其中黑线仓鼠２９２０只占７１．３４％。黑线仓鼠种群数量季节和年度变化明显，利用电子计算机对黑线仓鼠种数量进行分析，提出种群数量繁殖指数和动态模型以及短、中、长期预测公式、预测准确率为９０．０％。并对影响种群数量的因素进行了初步分析。

STUDIES ON THE POPULATION DYNAMICS AND PREDICTION IN STRIPED HAMSTER

The population dynamics and the numbers prediction of striped hamster (Cricetulus barabensis) have been stuied in Huhehot from 1984-1991. The results obtained are as follows.1. The regression equation of reproductive indices within one year is:I(t) = 0. 8371 0. 7602t-0. 0661t2,r=0. 4611,F = 4. 7262>F<0.05(1.35) = 4. 14,where I(t) represents the reproductive indices in month t.2. The regression equation of capture rates for months is:Nt 1 = 0. 8904 0. 0421 Nt 0. 0904Mt2,r = 0. 9439,F=126. 59>F0.01(1.31) = 7. 53,where t and Nt represent the month and the capture rate of striped hamster in month t, respectively. The capture rate in the next month can be estimated by the capture rate in the present month.3.y = 0. 1208 1. 2132x(r=0. 9209>r0.01,df=25), where x and y represent the capture rates in the present month and in the month after next month,respectively.4.y=1. 4851 - 1. 7595x(r = 0. 967>r0.05,df= 3), where y and x represent the capture rate of striped hamster in April next year and the reproductive indices in September or October of the present year, respectively.5.y8 = 1. 1786 0. 5545x(r = 0. 9545>r0.01) y9= -0. 1307 1. 4210x(r = 0. 9692>r0.01) y10 = 0. 5248-1. 1789x(r=0. 8653>r0.05)where y8,y9 and y10 represent the capture rates in August,September and October in next year,respectively,and x represents the reproductive indices in April this year.These results showed that the values of prediction are close to the values actually found.