三江源国家公园游憩承载力模拟仿真研究

游憩承载力评估与预测是国家公园游憩规划与动态管理的重要工具。采用系统动力学模拟仿真软件Vensim＿PLE,构建三江源国家公园游憩承载力系统动力学模型，包括资源空间、生态环境、社会经济、社会心理4个子系统。以2015—2035年为系统仿真区间，模拟了原始情景、社会驱动模式、生态保护优先模式、协调发展模式4种情景下各子系统的发展演化趋势，为三江源国家公园游憩规划与管理提供参考。结果表明：(1)原始情景模式下，三江源国家公园游憩承载力呈先增后降的趋势，在2031年面临游憩承载力超载风险，在加大游憩设施投入的社会驱动模式下，游憩承载力将有所提升，但2031年后提升效果微弱。(2)生态保护优先模式通过提高污染治理能力和适度控制游客规模，游憩承载力有所提升，并将游憩承载力超载风险由2031年延迟至2033年。(3)协调发展模式下，生态环境承载力和资源空间承载力缓慢上升，在4种模式中均为最高值，游憩承载力也达到最大值，游憩承载力超载的风险由2031年延长至2035年以后。对国家公园游憩承载力的模拟预测，可为合理及时调控提供科学参考，有利于三江源国家公园生态保护与游憩质量提升。

Simulation on recreation carrying capacity of Sanjiangyuan National Park

Recreation carrying capacity estimation and predication is an important tool for recreation planning and dynamic management of national park. This paper establishes a system dynamics model for Sanjiangyuan National Park recreation carrying capacity based on the system dynamics simulation software Vensim_PLE, which includes four subsystems, namely resource space, ecological environment, socio-economic, and social-psychological system. Using 2015-2035 as the time interval, this paper sets four scenarios for simulation to estimate trend of each subsystem, providing a reference for the recreation planning and management of Sanjiangyuan National Park. The four scenarios include original scenario, the social-driven scenario, the ecological protection priority scenario, and the coordinated development scenario. Results show:(1) Under the current original scenario, the recreation carrying capacity shows a trend of increasing initially and deceasing afterwards. However, it may face the risk of surpassing the recreation carrying capacity in 2031. Under the social-driven scenario of increasing investment in recreational facilities, the recreation carrying capacity has improved, but the effect of improvement after 2031 will be weak. (2) Under the ecological protection priority scenario, through the improvement of capacity of pollution prevention and control of tourist scale, the recreation carrying capacity has been improved, and the risk of overloading the recreation carrying capacity has been postponed from 2031 to 2033. (3) Under the coordinated development scenario, the ecological environment carrying capacity and the resource space carrying capacity increase slowly, with the highest value among the four scenarios, and the recreation carrying capacity reaches the maximum value. The risk of overloading the recreation carrying capacity extended from 2031 to after 2035. The simulation and prediction of recreation carrying capacity of national park provides a scientific reference for reasonable and timely control, which is conducive to ecological protection and improvement of recreational quality in Sanjiangyuan National Park.