生态系统服务簇空间演变轨迹及其社会-生态驱动的地理探测——以大连市为例

生态系统服务簇是多种生态系统服务的组合，明晰生态系统服务簇及其自然-社会经济驱动因素，对生态系统服务内部相互依赖机制识别、实现多种生态系统服务间良性互动具有重要意义。目前生态系统服务簇的识别已得到广泛应用，但对多种生态系统服务之间交互作用的动态过程与影响机理的认识还不够深刻。针对目前多种生态系统服务间交互作用动态演化分析及其社会-生态驱动机理研究不足的现状，以我国北方沿海重要中心城市——大连市为例，选取食物供给、水源涵养、固碳释氧、土壤保持、生境质量和景观美学6种关键服务。采用Spearman相关性分析方法探究生态系统服务权衡与协同关系，借助自组织网络方法识别生态系统服务簇，进一步分析多种生态系统服务间交互作用的时空分异特征，运用地理探测器探究其空间分异影响因素。结果表明：(1)食物供给与土壤保持存在极显著的权衡关系■,土壤保持与景观美学存在极显著的协同关系■。(2)2005—2015年大连市生态保育簇空间格局较稳定，水源涵养簇、食物供给簇与服务枯竭簇之间轨迹变化明显，城市扩张与服务枯竭簇演变具有一致性。(3)高程、归一化植被指数是影响生态系统服务簇空间分布的关键自然因素，而土地利用强...

Spatial evolution trajectory of ecosystem service bundles and its social-ecological driven by geographical exploration: A case study of Dalian

Ecosystem service bundles are a combination of multiple ecosystem services. Understanding the ecosystem service bundles and their ecological-social-economic driving factors is significant for identifying the internal interdependence mechanism of ecosystem services and realizing the benign interactions among multiple ecosystem services. Presently, identification of ecosystem service bundles has been extensively explored, but understanding of the dynamic process and influence mechanism of the interaction between multiple ecosystem services is not sufficiently comprehensive. Aiming at the current situation of insufficient research on the dynamic evolution analysis of interactions among various ecosystem services and their social-ecological driving mechanism, this study took the important coastal city of northern China-Dalian as an example, using six key services, including food supply, water conservation, carbon sequestration and oxygen production, soil conservation, habitat quality, and landscape aesthetics. Spearman rank correlation analysis was used to explore the trade-offs and synergies of ecosystem services. The self-organizing map methods were used to identify ecosystem service bundles. The temporal and spatial differentiation characteristics of the interactions of multiple ecosystem services were explored based on Geo-Detector to identify the influencing factors of its spatial differentiation. The results showed that:1) there was a significant trade off relationship between food supply and soil conservation (the annual average correlation coefficient was -0.45); additionally, there was a strongly significant synergistic relationship between soil conservation and landscape aesthetics (the average annual correlation coefficient was 0.5). 2) the spatial pattern of ecological conservation bundle in Dalian from 2005 to 2015 was relatively stable, and the trajectories of water conservation bundle, food supply bundle, and service exhaustion bundle changed significantly, while urban expansion was consistent with the evolution of service exhaustion bundle. 3) Elevation and normalized vegetation index were the key natural factors that affected the spatial differentiation of ecosystem service bundles. Land use intensity index and GDP per land were the main socio-economic factors that affected the evolution of its spatial pattern. The interaction between different factors would strengthen the understanding of the spatial differentiation characteristics of ecosystem service bundles, and the interpretation of the spatial differentiation of ecosystem service bundles; particularly, the interaction between social-economic factors and ecological factors had a significant impact on the evolution of the spatial pattern of ecosystem service bundles. Further research on the interaction of ecosystem services based on ecosystem service bundles can provide a scientific basis for regional formulation of targeted land development and ecological protection planning.