基于生态-产业共生关系的林业生态安全测度方法构想

通过对林业生态安全内涵构成的研究和对现有测度方法的比较分析,发现国内外林业生态安全测度研究中存在“就生态论生态”的预警滞后性、评价指标体系及权重设定的主观性、指标体系和特征指数难以优势互补、生态安全性判据缺乏客观依据等问题.为解决这些问题,需要基于生态与产业系统的共生关系研究林业生态安全测度的新方法.首先,研究林业生态安全的压力-状态-影响-响应结构模型和结构方程模型(SEM)的构建方法,从而为评价指标体系的构建和权重的确定提供了理论依据和结构化、定量化方法.然后,通过寻求指标体系和特征指数的有机结合,得出描述林业生态安全演变趋势的性质和程度的特征指数——生态-产业共生度和成熟度.由此提出确定林业生态安全阈值和底线的定量化方法,并建立林业生态安全双特征判断矩阵,从而将林业生态安全度分为3个安全区间、6个安全等级和4个预警级别.最后,综合以上成果,构建了基于生态-产业共生关系的林业生态安全测度方法的整体框架:目标-手段树和技术路线.根据新方法的构建机理,所得出的林业生态安全测度和预警信息具有主观性弱、预测性强、特征指数值的生态经济意义明确、便于追溯问题的原因等技术优势,有利于林业生态安全的监控和管理.

Methodology for measuring forestry ecological security based on ecology-industry symbiosis: a research framework

Some weaknesses of researches on measuring forestry ecological security (FES) are found both in China and abroad, such as pre-warning lag owing to confining the visual field to ecology only, subjectivity in establishing evaluation indicators system and in weighting, difficulty in complementing each other's advantages between indicators system and characteristic indexes, lack of objective criterion for FES, and so on, by studying the connotational constitution of FES and comparing the existing measuring methods. To overcome these weaknesses, a new methodology for measuring FES need to be researched based on ecology-industry symbiosis. Firstly, methods for building FES pressure-state-impact-response structural model and structural equation model (SEM) are researched, in order to provide theoretical basis as well as structured and quantificational methods for establishing evaluation indicators system and for weighting. Then, the two characteristic indexes that are ecology-industry symbiotic degree and mature level which indicate respectively the nature and extent of FES changing trend are derived from exploring the organic link between indicators system and characteristic indexes. Thereby the quantificational methods for ascertaining FES threshold and bottom-line are presented, so that FES degree can be divided into 3 security intervals, 6 security levels and 4 pre-warning levels in accordance with the bicharacteristic judgment matrix. Finally, the overall framework of the methodology for measuring FES based on ecology-industry symbiosis is established according to the above researches, which includes means-ends tree and technology roadmap. There are following technological advantages of FES measure and pre-warning information provided through the methodology according to its building-up mechanism: weak subjectivity, good predictability, explicit eco-economy meaning of characteristic indexes, convenient cause tracing, etc, which are helpful to FES supervisory control.