区域生态安全灾变态势分析方法——以辽河流域为例

在实际生产生活中人们关注的不仅是基于P-S-R（压力-状态-响应）框架的生态安全状态评价，而是未来生态安全灾变态势问题。灾变是由风险演变而来。存在生态安全隐患，就存在生态安全灾变的风险，生态安全隐患是生态安全灾变的风险源。生态安全灾变风险是指在一定区域内，由于各种隐患因素对人与自然环境复合生态系统可能产生的危害作用，从而使生态安全状态所承受的恶化和灾变的可能性，是人们不能确切把握且不愿接受的安全状态恶化的一种态势。以区域突发型生态安全隐患和缓发型生态安全隐患的危害作用为研究对象，采用生态风险评价和地理信息系统（GIS）分析技术相结合的方法，以辽河流域为实例探讨了生态安全灾变态势的理论与方法。

Research on the method of regional ecological security disaster trend analysis: a case study at the reaches of Liaohe River

People pay attention to not only the state assessment of ecological security based on P-S-R (Pressure-State-Response) in practice, but also the future disaster trend problem. Disasters are caused by taking risks. Where there is hidden danger, there is also risk of a disaster. Ecological security dangers are factors of disaster. Ecological security disaster risk is the probability of deterioration and disaster which the ecological security state receives, as a result of the hidden danger harm to the compound eco-system in a certain areas, and it is the deterioration trend of ecological security state that people do not truly control or like to accept. This article applies the geography information system (GIS) analysis technique and ecological risk assessment method, according to the harm of regional paroxysmal and gradual dangers, study the theories and methods which related to the disaster trend (risk) based on the case study of Liaohe River.