区域可持续发展SD规划模型的试验优控——以干旱区柴达木盆地为例

柴达木盆地作为我国下世纪重点开发地区之一，对其资源合理开发利用不仅对青海省经济发展有着举足轻重的作用，而且对缩小东西部发展差距、支援西藏、巩固国防有着不可估量的作用。以对盆地的实地考察为基础，运用ＳＤ模型对盆地资源开发和经济同生态环境协调发展弹性方案进行试验调控，得出追求经济发展为主目标的发展型方案、追求资源与生态环境保护为目标的保护型方案和追求人口、资源、环境和经济社会协调发展为主目标的协调型发

Study on optimal control experiment of the resources development and corresponding development between economy and eco environment in the Qiadam Basin

As a significant needing development region of China in the next century,it not only holds the balance to the economic development of Qinghai Province.but has very important function on shortening the difference among the east and west China,supporting Tibet and solidifying the national defence.After reviewing the basin on the spot in July,1997,the authors of this paper carried out an optimal contral experiment of the stretch project on the resources development and corresponding development between economy and eco environment using the SD model,and got three future developing projects:(1)project characteristics of development which takes the economic development as the dominant aim;(2)project characteristics of protecting resources and eco enviroment and (3)project characteristics of corresponding development which take the corresponding development among population,resources,environment and social economy as the dominant aim.Balancing the three projects,the authors thought the last one of them is the best projects comparatively.