长江经济带生态安全测度研究

长江经济带城镇化发展迅速,但随之出现的诸多生态安全问题已严重制约其高质量发展。为综合特征指数法与指标体系法优势,并诠释社会经济与生态共生发展这一生态安全新内涵,在分析城镇化发展与自然生态相互作用基础上,选取2006年至2017年长江经济带沿线11个省市数据为研究样本,运用"驱动-压力-状态-影响-响应（DPSIR）"模型、R聚类法及变异系数法确定生态安全指标及其权重,再利用城镇化-自然生态Lotka-Volterra共生模型获得具备生态经济内涵的受力指数、综合特征指数,实现指标与指数的耦合,更进一步推导出生态安全预警依据。最后进行实证测度,并根据测度结果进行指标回溯分析生态安全问题成因,完成逆向解耦。研究结果表明：（1）2006-2017年长江经济带城镇化系统发展迅猛,尤其是城镇化驱动力得到强化,但长江经济带生态环境状况改善幅度并不明显且长期处于城镇化高速发展而生态环境遭受损害的偏害发展模式;（2）长江经济带11个省市生态安全格局差异显著,呈现"东西较高,中间偏低"格局;（3）通过指标回溯发现,产业结构发展不均衡、城镇人口过度扩张、城镇化子系统对生态环境空间的侵占等因素是造成长江经济带生态安全问题的重要原因。

Ecological security measurement of the Yangtze River economic belt

Urbanization in the Yangtze river economic belt is developing rapidly, but many ecological security problems have seriously restricted its high- quality development. This paper aims to integrate the advantages of the characteristic index method and the index system method and explain the new connotation of the symbiotic development of social economy and ecology. Based on the analysis of the interaction between urbanization development and natural ecology, we selected data from 11 provinces and cities along the Yangtze river economic belt from 2006 to 2017and used"drive- pressure- state- impact- response(DPSIR) "model, R clustering method and coefficient of variation method to determine the ecological security index and its weight. Then, the lotka- volterra symbiosis model of urbanization- natural ecology was applied to obtain stress index and comprehensive characteristic index with ecological economic connotation, to achieve the coupling of index and indicator, and further to deduce the basis for early warning of ecological security. Finally, the paper carried out an empirical measurement, and retrospectively analyzed the causes of ecological security problems according to the measurement results, and completed the reverse decoupling. The results show that: (1) The urban system of the Yangtze river economic belt developed rapidly from 2006 to 2017, especially the urban driving force was strengthened. However, the magnitude of the improvement of the ecological environment was not obvious, and it was in a long- term biased development mode. Under this mode, the urban system developed, but the ecological environment was damaged. (2) The ecological security pattern of 11 provinces and cities in the Yangtze river economic belt was significantly different, presenting a pattern of "high east- west, low middle". (3) Through the backtracking of indicators, we found that the unbalanced industrial structure development, over expansion of urban population, and occupation of ecological environment space by urbanization subsystem were main reasons for the ecological security problems in the Yangtze river economic belt.