基于生态系统服务理论的中国绿色经济转型预测分析

着眼于中国绿色经济转型之路的科学预测与分析,借鉴传统环境负荷模型以及资源与经济脱钩理论、区位熵理论等,提出基于生态系统服务理论的有关绿色经济指标评价模型。应用该模型计算出2001—2010年全球及中国有关绿色经济指标,依照未来中国经济与社会发展规划目标,预计"十二五"末期中国经济发展中的资源消耗及环境损失成本、人均绿色GDP将分别达到3.11×1012美元、0.37×104美元,生态负荷强度、资源脱钩指数及绿色GDP的区位熵指数分别为0.38、0.66、75;2020年中国绿色GDP的区位熵指数将超越全球平均水平、2024年人均GDP将突破1万美元关口步入中等发达国家行列。计算结果表明中国生态系统压力逐年降低、资源利用效率、环境绩效与经济效益同步提高,逐渐在全球经济绿色转型过程中发挥重要作用;未来,中国仍需秉承"共同但有区别的责任"原则,处理好与其他国家的权责纷争;同时积极推进节能减排、经济结构调整工作,进一步协调好城乡之间、区域之间经济社会发展与自然资源及生态环境的关系。

Prediction and analysis of the transition to green economy in China based on the theory of ecosystem services

In order to predict and analyze the way of China''s green transition, the calculation model on green economic indicators was put forward based on the theory of ecosystem services, the traditional input-output analysis method, the traditional environmental load model, decoupling theory and location quotient theory. These economic indicators can clearly show the dynamic relationship between resource consumption and environmental loss costs and ecosystem. By using simulation method the service values of all kinds of land ecosystems were firstly calculated in 2010 on the basis of the equivalent weights of land ecosystem service values in China. Moreover, the model on resource consumption and environmental loss costs was established based on service values of ecosystem. And these formulas for calculating green GDP, ecological load intensity, resource decoupling indicator and location quotient on green GDP were respectively presented. Using the above models and formulas the global and China''s index values of green economy were calculated from 2001 to 2010. With high development of the national economy in recent years, China''s resource consumption and environmental loss costs are increasing day by day. Many disputes and friction on the rights and responsibilities with the developed countries are also produced. On the basis of China''s future planning objectives on economic and social development as well as the relevant national statistical data, economic development indicators were calculated using the above-mentioned models and the global future indicators were predicted using a unitary linear regression model. The predicted results showed that total cost of resource consumption and environmental loss would reach ＄ 3.11×10¹² and net worth of green GDP per person reached ＄ 0.37×10⁴, the ecological load intensity, resource decoupling indicator and location quotient on green GDP were respectively 0.38, 0.66 and 75 by 2015. The results in this study showed that China''s ecological pressure would be gradually reduced, and the efficiency of resource utilization and location quotient on green GDP would be simultaneously improved with the economic benefit enhancing. The location quotient on green GDP will exceed the global average in 2020, the GDP per person will surpass ten thousand dollars and join the range of moderately developed countries in 2024. In future, China will still adhere to the principle of "common but differentiated responsibilities", and solve the disputes on the rights and responsibilities with other countries. Meanwhile, China will actively promote energy conservation, industrial restructuring, and further coordinate the regional relationship among economic development, natural resources and ecological environment.