气候变化条件下曲纹紫灰蝶在中国的潜在适生区预测

曲纹紫灰蝶(Chilades pandava)是一种以幼虫危害苏铁(Cycas revolute)嫩枝嫩叶的园林害虫，对苏铁的生长繁殖、生产者的经济效益以及城市园林的美观造成严重影响。基于曲纹紫灰蝶和苏铁的现存分布点，利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)、ArcGIS、R软件对当前和未来气候条件下曲纹紫灰蝶在中国的潜在适生区分布及当前气候条件下寄主苏铁在中国的潜在适生区分布进行了预测，其中当前气候数据基于1970—2000年的历史数据，未来气候数据(2021—2040年、2041—2060年和2061—2080年)选择第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中中国北京气候中心中等分辨率气候系统模式(BCC-CSM2-MR)下的3种共享社会经济路径(SSP126(属于低强迫情景), SSP370(属于中等至高等强迫情景), SSP585(属于高强迫情景))。结果表明：(1)模型预测结果非常好，各组模型的受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)值均高于0.95,昼夜温差月均值(bio2)、等温性(bio3)、最热季平均温度(bio10)、最湿月份降水量(bio13)是影响曲纹紫灰蝶分布的主导...

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Chilades pandava in China under climate change

Butterfly, Chilades pandava (Horsfield) is a garden pest whose larvae harm the young leaves of the Sago Palm Cycas revoluta (Thunb). It has a serious impact on the growth and reproduction of Cycas revoluta, the economic prospects of growers, and the beauty of urban gardens. In this study, based on the existing distribution points of Chilades pandava and Cycas revoluta, we used MaxEnt, ArcGIS, and R software to predict the potential geographical distribution of Chilades pandava in China under current and future climate conditions and the potential geographical distribution of Cycas revoluta in China under the current climate condition. The current climate data used here were based on historical data from 1970 to 2000. The future data (2021-2040, 2041-2060, and 2061-2080) were derived from three representative concentration pathways (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585) under BCC-CSM2-MR in CMIP6. The results showed that:(1) the area under the curve (AUC) of the test subject working characteristic (ROC) of each model was higher than 0.95, suggesting that the accuracy of the models was very good. The mean diurnal range (bio2), isothermality (bio3), mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), and precipitation of the wettest month (bio13) were the main climatic factors affecting the potential distribution of Chilades pandava. (2) Under the current climatic conditions, the total areas of suitable habitats of Chilades pandava were found to account for 29.7% of the national land area, and highly suitable habitats were mainly distributed in the south of the Yangtze River, including Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hong Kong, Jiangxi, Hunan, Fujian, Taiwan, southeast Sichuan, northern Chongqing, southern Anhui, Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang. (3) The overlapping suitable areas of Chilades pandava and Cycas revoluta accounted for 25.9% of the national area. (4) Under each of the future climate change scenario, the total suitable area for Chilades pandava growth would be greater than the total suitable area under the current climate conditions. In particular, the total area of highly suitable habitats increased significantly, including locations in Shandong, Hebei, Henan, Tianjin, and Beijing. The total area of suitable habitat for Chilades pandava under the scenario SSP585 in 2061-2080 was found to be the largest, accounting for 41.33% of the national area, 1.1157 million km² more than in the current climate. The study can provide a theoretical basis for the prevention and control of Chilades pandava and the protection of Cycas revoluta resources in China.