人类活动对北京空气质量影响的综合生态评价

为给北京未来的空气污染控制政策的制定提供科学依据,采用基于压力-状态-响应模型框架构建的指标体系、生态服务功能估算和历史分析相结合的方法,探讨了人类活动、人工调节措施(1983~2003年)和生命支持系统生态服务功能(北京建城初~2003年)对北京城市生态系统空气质量影响的综合评价方法,结果表明:(1)人类活动对北京城市空气质量综合影响的排序结果前3位排名为2003年(0.619)、2001年(0.598)和2002年(0.578),后3位排名为1983年(0.392)、1984年(0.395)和1985年(0.495),综合影响总体趋向积极且稳步上升;(2)1983~2003年北京市的人类活动对北京城市空气质量消极与积极影响同时增强,城市空气质量自1998年后有所改善;(3)压力指数p与响应指数r呈极显著负相关关系,相关系数-0.995(p<0.001);(4)不同响应指数下的状态指数变化表明随着响应指数的增加,北京空气质量改善,但是在响应力度不强时其消极影响占主位;(5)1900年以前北京市人类活动对空气环境的影响很小,北京市生命支持系统的生态服务功能可以调节其影响;1975年后,北京市生命支持系统的生态服务功能显著下降,城市空气质量恶化,但随着人工调节能力的增强城市空气质量自1998年后趋于改善。

Comprehensive ecological assessments of human impacts on air quality in Beijing,China

Aiming at providing scientific foundations for the policymakers to control urban air emissions, this paper explored two methodologies for evaluating the impacts of human activity (from 1983 to 2003), human and natural regulation (from the early days of Beijing city to 2003) on the air quality of Beijing's urban ecosystem through the Pressure-State-Response indicator system, ecosystem services estimating, and historical literature review. The results show that: (1) The three top ones are 2003 (0.619), 2001 (0.598), and 2002 (0.578); the three last ones are 1983 (0.392), 1984 (0.395), and 1985 (0.495). The total human impacts have an active tendency and increase with steady steps. (2) The active and negative impacts increased simultaneity from 1983 to 2003. Urban air quality improved since 1998. (3) The correlation coefficient between pressure index and response index is-0.995 (p<0.001). (4) The state index increased with the response index.As a result, the air quality improved, but the negative impacts dominated the active ones when the response index is not robust enough. (5) There are little human impacts on urban air quality before 1900. Bio-support services of Beijing city can regulate the impacts. However, after 1975, because bio-support services remarkably decreased, air quality became very severe. With the increase of human regulation ability, air quality of Beijing has been improved since 1998.