基于智能体模型的土地利用动态模拟研究进展

土地利用动态变化是全球变化和可持续发展研究的基础,对区域水循环、大气循环、环境质量、气候变化及陆地生态系统生产力等具有重要影响,也是造成生物多样性衰减的最主要原因.目前,建立于复杂性科学基础上的的智能体模型(ABM)成为土地利用动态模拟的重要方法.智能体模型能模拟个体或群体的行为及决策模式,从而能将政府、城市规划、房地产开发商、住户等社会群体及个人对土地利用产生的影响进行模拟,同时能对不同社会经济政策对土地动态影响进行模拟.智能体模型在元胞自动机基础上,加入了人为因素的智能体概念,从而能更好地模拟土地动态.在分析总结了智能体模型的相关概念和组织结构,并分析了其在土地利用动态、城市动态模拟及生态过程模拟等方面的应用与元胞自动机的关系,比较了常用的智能体模型的主要软件,最后概括了智能体模型优点、发展趋势及存在的主要问题.

Simulating land use change with agent-based models: progress and prospects

Land use and land cover change is fundamentally important for studying global environmental change and sustainability because it has great impacts on biodiversity, ecosystem processes, atmospheric circulation, environmental quality, climate change, etc. Simulation modeling has been important in the study of land use dynamics and, recently, agent-based models (ABMs) have been developed and applied in this field. An ABM is composed of a set of agents interacting in a common environment. Agents have the following characteristics: goal-directed, autonomy, social abilities, reactivity and pro-activities. They can interact with one another and with the environment and complete tasks autonomously without human intervention. They exhibit goal-directed behavior, have their own problem-solving capabilities, and are able to interact in order to reach an overall goal. Agents perceive, produce, transform and manipulate objects in the environment and reach autonomy cooperatively by sensing activity and modifying their environment. ABMs have an intuitive appeal for simulating complex human-involved processes. They are able to explicitly model individual decision makers and their interactions and simulate complex human behavior and decision processes as they are affected by socioeconomic factors. In urban studies, ABMs have been integrated with human behavior and decisions with cellular automata architecture. In ecology, individual-based models (IBMs) were developed at the end of 1980s which are similar to ABMs in several ways. Now ABMs have been used in economics, sociology, psychology, finance, urban simulation, and other fields. Major platforms include SWARM, RePast, Ascape, and CORMAS. In this paper, we attempt to outline the basic concepts and general modeling framework of ABMs, discuss the pros and cons of these models, and explore their future directions in simulating land use change, urban dynamics, and ecological processes.