中国沿海省区海洋绿色发展测度及影响机理

海洋绿色发展是海洋高质量发展的重要内容，坚持生态优先和资源可持续的绿色发展模式对于海洋可持续的意义重大。在梳理了海洋绿色发展概念与内涵基础上，以沿海11省市为研究对象，基于2006-2017年沿海各省市的面板数据，建立海洋绿色发展评价指标体系，通过可变模糊识别模型对海洋绿色发展水平进行测度，并运用Arcgis软件和马尔可夫空间模型对其进行时空演变分析，最后运用面板数据模型进行影响因素分析。结果表明：①2006-2017年我国海洋绿色发展水平一直保持增长趋势，总体提高了19.6%，但整体仍呈中等水平，且地区差异明显。在空间分布上，空间集聚特征依然明显，东南沿海地区总体海洋绿色发展水平相对较高，西南和东北部分地区海洋绿色发展水平相对较低。②从时空演化特征来看，上海、天津、山东的海洋绿色发展水平相对较高，河北、广西的海洋绿色发展水平相对较低。区域背景对海洋绿色发展类型转移具有显著影响，高水平区域背景对海洋绿色发展水平增长具有辐射、促进作用，而低水平区域背景对增长具有制约、减缓作用。③从外部因素来看，政府调控、陆域经济水平和开放程度对海洋绿色发展有正向显著影响，环境治理有负向显著影响；从内部因素来看，海洋产业结构、海洋管理和海洋资源利用都有正向显著影响。根据总结以上结论，针对不同地区的海洋绿色发展情况提出不同的发展途径与对策，为海洋绿色发展提供科学的参考依据。

Marine green and its influence mechanism of coastal cities

Marine green development is an important part of marine high-quality development. Adhering to the green development mode of ecological priority and resource sustainability is of great significance for marine sustainable development. On the basis of combing the concept and connotation of marine green development, taking 11 coastal provinces and cities as the research object, based on the panel data of coastal provinces and cities from 2006 to 2017, the evaluation index system of marine green development level was established and the level of marine green development was measured by variable modulus and identification model, then use the ArcGIS software and the Markov space model to analyze its spatiotemporal evolution. Finally, use the panel data model to analyze the influencing factors. The study results show that from 2006 to 2017, the level of marine green development in China has maintained an increasing trend and the overall increase is 19.6%, but the overall is still keep the medium level, and have obviously regional differences. In terms of spatial distribution, the characteristics of spatial agglomeration are still obvious. For example, the overall level of marine green development in southeast coastal areas is relatively high, while the level of marine green development in southwest and northeast areas is relatively low. According to the distribution at provincial scale, the level of marine green development in Shanghai, Tianjin and Shandong is relatively high, and the level of marine green development in Hebei and Guangxi is relatively low. The regional background has a significant impact on the transfer of marine green development types, that is, when regions are surrounded by high-level regions, there is radiated, promoting influence on the growth of marine green development level, and when regions are surrounded by low-level regional, there is constrained influence on the growth of marine green development level. From the perspective of external factors, government regulation, land economy level and open degree have positive and significant impacts on the green development of the ocean, the environmental governance has negative and significant impact on the green development of the ocean, and marine industry structure, marine management and marine resources utilization all have positive and significant influence on the green development of the ocean. According to the above conclusions, the paper puts forward different development approaches and countermeasures for marine green development in different regions, which provides scientific reference for marine green development.