新疆85个县市旅游生态安全时空格局演变及驱动机制

旅游生态安全是区域生态安全的重要组成部分。科学评价区域旅游生态安全状况，对区域旅游生态安全风险防控具有重要的现实意义。以新疆85个县市为研究对象，兼顾DPSIR模型与数据包络分析方法（DEA）两者优势，运用Max-DEA软件科学、系统地测度新疆各县市2007-2017年的旅游生态安全，利用ArcGIS10.6和GeoDa0.95i软件的空间分析技术对新疆各县市的旅游生态安全时空格局演变特征进行分析，并利用地理探测器探测旅游生态安全的关键影响因素。研究发现：（1）时间上，新疆多数县市的旅游生态安全指数逐年降低，呈现出明显的恶化趋势；空间上，新疆各县市旅游生态安全等级两极分化现象严重，且南疆县市的旅游生态安全水平总体优于北疆县市；（2）新疆各县市的旅游生态安全存在明显的相关性，旅游生态安全空间集聚态势明显；（3）新疆旅游生态安全低-低类聚集区域范围有所扩散，高-高类聚集区域范围则正在缩小，负面空间溢出效应增强，正面溢出效应减弱；（4）影响新疆各县市旅游生态安全的主要因素有：城镇化率、游客人数、游客密度、旅游空间指数、星级酒店数、植被指数、农牧民人均纯收入、旅游业对GDP的贡献率、旅游接待能力以及每万人拥有教师数。基于研究发现，本文刻画了新疆旅游生态安全的驱动机制，并提出相应的政策建议。研究成果对新疆各县市的旅游生态安全的保护具有重要的参考意义。

Spatiotemporal pattern and driving mechanism of tourism ecological security in 85 counties and cities of Xinjiang

Tourism ecological security is an essential part of regional ecological security. Evaluating regional tourism ecological security scientifically is important for preventing and controlling regional tourism ecological security risks. Considering the advantages of the Driver-Pressure-State-Impact-Response (DPSIR) model and Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), this study uses Max-DEA software to scientifically and systematically measure the tourism ecological security of 85 counties and cities in Xinjiang from 2007 to 2017. It also uses ArcGIS10.6 and GeoDa0.95i software''s spatial analysis technology to analyze the spatial and temporal pattern evolution characteristics of the tourism ecological security. Afterward, the key influencing factors of tourism ecological security are detected using Geo Detector software. The results show that (1) During the period of 2007-2017, 40.01% of the counties and cities in Xinjiang have experienced fluctuation and decline in tourism ecological security. Among them, 20% of the counties and cities rapidly dropped from the high level of tourism ecological security in 2007 to the low level of tourism ecological security in 2017, and 12.94% of the counties and cities have been in the low level of tourism ecological security. On the contrary, 22.35% of the counties'' tourism ecological security index continued to rise with fluctuations based on a higher level of tourism ecological security state. Moreover, the polarization of the tourism ecological security level is severe in counties and cities of Xinjiang, and the tourism ecological security of counties and cities in southern Xinjiang is better than that in northern Xinjiang. (2) There is an obvious correlation between the tourism ecological security of various counties and cities in Xinjiang, and the spatial agglomeration trend of tourism ecological security has become more obvious. (3) The scope of low-low cluster areas of tourism ecological security in Xinjiang counties and cities has been diffused, while the scope of high-high cluster areas is shrinking. It indicates that the negatively spatial spillover effect is enhanced, but the positive spillover effect is weakened. (4) The main factors that affects tourism ecological security in Xinjiang counties and cities include the urbanization rate, number of tourists, tourist density, tourism spatial index, number of star hotels, vegetation index, net income of farmers and herders per capita, contribution rate of the tourism industry to gross domestic product (GDP), tourism reception capacity, and teachers per 10,000 people. This study constructs the driving mechanism of tourism ecological security and introduces corresponding policy recommendations based on the research findings. The research results have important reference significance for protecting tourism ecological security in Xinjiang.