青弋江流域生态系统服务评估与权衡研究

研究生态系统服务价值变化特征及多种服务之间的权衡协同关系，对平衡经济发展与环境保护具有重要意义。基于修订的当量因子表，结合2000、2009、2018年3个时期遥感解译获取的土地利用数据，运用生态系统服务权衡协同度模型、敏感性分析、空间自相关、土地利用程度综合指数模型等分析了青弋江流域生态系统服务价值（Ecosystem Services Value，ESV）的时空演变特征及9种生态服务之间的权衡协同关系。结果表明：（1）2000、2009及2018年的生态系统服务价值分别为285.19、351.26和294.68亿元，价值总量呈先增后减的变化趋势，其中2009-2018年间总ESV下降了16.1%，生态服务趋于退化。整个研究时段内，林地对ESV的贡献量最大，其次是耕地和水域。（2）2000-2009年，单项生态系统服务间以协同关系为主导，协同率为77.8%，食物生产服务与本研究中的其他服务之间均为权衡关系；2009-2018年间生态系统服务间的关系与前9年基本一致，但食物生产服务与其他服务功能之间的权衡度呈增强的趋势。（3）敏感性分析表明，各时期的敏感性指数（CS）值均小于1，表明基于修订的当量因子表计算获得的生态系统服务价值系数符合青弋江流域的实际情况，计算结果可靠。（4）生态系统服务价值存在较强的正向空间自相关，但集聚程度有下降的趋势。双变量空间自相关分析表明当土地利用程度增强时，生态系统提供的总服务价值或单项服务价值均会降低。研究结果可为青弋江流域土地利用结构的优化调整及生态环境保护提供参考信息。

Evaluation and trade-off of ecosystem services in the Qingyijiang River Basin

It is of great significance for balancing economic development and environmental protection to study the characteristics of ecosystem services value (ESV) and the trade-offs and synergies between multiple services. Based on the revised equivalence factor table, combined with the land use data from remote sensing interpretation in 2000, 2009 and 2018, the ecosystem services trade-offs and synergies model, sensitivity analysis, spatial autocorrelation and comprehensive index model of land use degree were used to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of ESV in Qingyijiang River Basin and the trade-off relationship among nine kinds of ecological services. As the results showed, firstly, in 2000, 2009 and 2018, the ESV of Qingyijiang River Basin was 28.519 billion yuan, 35.126 billion yuan, and 29.468 billion yuan respectively, while the total value showed a trend of first increase and then decrease. Among them, the total ESV decreased by 16.1% from 2009 to 2018, and the ecological services tended to be degraded. Secondly, from 2000 to 2009, the single ecosystem service was dominated by synergy, with the synergy rate of 77.8%. There was a trade-off relationship between food production service and other services in this study. The relationship between ecosystem services in 2009-2018 was almostly same as that in the previous nine years, but the trade-off between food production service and other services was increasing. Thirdly, the sensitivity analysis showed that the coefficient of sensitivity index (CS) values of each period were less than 1, which indicated that the ESV coefficient calculated on the basis of the revised equivalence factor table was consistent with the actual situation of Qingyijiang River Basin, and the calculation results were reliable. Fourth, there was a strongly positive spatial autocorrelation of ESV, but the degree of agglomeration had a downward trend. Bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that the total service value or individual service value of ecosystem would decrease when the land use degree increased. The results can provide reference information for the optimization and adjustment of land use structure and ecological environment protection in the Qingyijiang River Basin.