基于MSIASM方法的中国省级行政区体外能代谢分析

通过社会代谢多尺度综合分析方法，采用社会不同层次人类活动时间、体外能代谢率与人类活动的社会开支和体外能的社会开支等指标，评价我国30个北京、天津、河北、山西、内蒙古自治区、辽宁、黑龙江、上海、福建、山东、河南、湖南、陕西、甘肃、宁夏回族自治区、新疆维吾尔自治区、吉林、江苏、浙江、安徽、江西、湖北、广东、广西壮族自治区、海南、重庆、四川、贵州、云南和青海30个省级行政区的社会代谢状况，识别出限制区域可持续发展的关键因素可持续发展水平，并通过因子分析和相关分析方法，识别限制区域可持续发展的因素。结果表明，该方法社会代谢多尺度综合分析方法适合于中国省级行政区的可持续发展评价；与2003年相比，2007年我国各省级单位的社会生产和消费水平普遍提高。在内蒙古自治区，矿业的迅速发展及其对工业和服务业的剧烈带动作用，造成了体外能代谢改善水平高于全国其他省级行政区。在海南省，整体工业化水平不高，以农业和旅游业为主的产业特点，使其体外能代谢的改善水平低于全国其他省级行政区。在江西和贵州，生产性行业发展过快，而服务业发展的和民生的工程人民生活水平改善发展的滞后，导致生产部门体外能代谢水平提高，而消费部门体外能代谢水平下降。在河北、青海和新疆维吾尔自治区，社会各行业均发展较快，而人民生活水平的改善较慢，使其付薪部门体外能代谢水平提高，而家庭部门体外能代谢水平下降。在安徽和广西壮族自治区，农业生产发展和消费水平提高较快，而工业生产水平和服务业发展有所降低，使其非农生产部门体外能代谢水平下降，而农业和家庭部门的体外能改善水平提高。在山西和上海地区，工业、服务业的发展和人民生活水平改善较叫快，而农业生产发展较慢，导致非农部门和家庭的体外能代谢水平提高，而农业部门的体外能代谢水平有所降低，这为地区可持续发展政策的制定提供了科学依据。与2003年对比，2007年资本和技术聚集是我国大部分地区社会发展的重要影响因素。北京、天津、河北、山西、内蒙古自治区、辽宁、黑龙江、上海、福建、山东、河南、湖南、陕西、甘肃、宁夏回族自治区和新疆维吾尔自治区仍需加大力度调整地区产业结构；吉林、江苏、浙江、安徽、江西、湖北、广东、广西壮族自治区、海南、重庆、四川、贵州、云南和青海继续加大资本技术的引进力度，以解决个省级行政区经济发展中的资本技术聚集与区域产业结构的不协调问题。而且，2007年中国省级行政区社会代谢表现异常，大多数省级行政区社会开支并未随社会发展而增加，社会负担表现为自南方向北方转移的倾向；内蒙古、宁夏和新疆3个矿产资源丰富的省级行政区的经济发展使当地环境承压过重。30个省级行政区中只有上海接近中等发达国家水平，北京、天津、河北等16个省级行政区仍需着力调整区域的产业结构，吉林、江苏、浙江等14个省级行政区仍需着力资本技术的引进力度，中国的社会负担出现南方转移到北方的倾向；与其他国家和地区相比，大部分省级行政区仍处于发展中国家水平，对这些国家和地区曾遇到的不可持续发展问题我们应引以为戒。

Societal metabolism for chinese provinces based on multi-scale integrated analysis of societal metabolism(MSIASM)

This study adopted the method of multi-scale integrated analysis of societal metabolism (MSIASM) to evaluate societal sustainable development levels of 30 provinces of China, including Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia, Xinjiang, Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan, and Qinghai by the indicators of human activity, exosomatic energy rate, overhead of human activity and overhead of exosomatic energy in different levels. Combining the methods of complete decomposition analysis and MSIASM, we identified the constraints for the sustainable development of 30 Chinese provinces. The results showed that MSIASM was appropriate to evaluate the sustainable development for 30 Chinese provinces. Compared with 2003, in 2007, the levels of productive and consumption level generally increased. In Inner Mongolia, the rapid growth of mineral industry promoted intense development for the industry and services, so the general level of social metabolism was higher than other provinces. In Hainan, the overall industrial level kept not high and main industries were still agriculture and tourism, so the general level of social metabolism was lower than other provinces. In Jiangxi and Guizhou, the development of productive industry was too fast, and the development of services and improvement of living condition was too slow, so metabolism level in productive sector increased and metabolism level in consumption sector decreased. In Hebei, Qinghai and Xinjiang, the development of industries in social economic was too fast, and the improvement of living condition was too slow, so metabolism level in paid work sector increased and metabolism level in household sector decreased. In Anhui and Guangxi, the development of agriculture and the improvement of living condition was too fast, and the development of industry and service was too slow, so metabolism level in non-agriculture productive sector increased and metabolism level in agriculture and household sector decreased. In Shanxi and Shanghai, the development of non-agriculture industry and the improvement of living condition were too fast, and the development of agriculture was too slow, so metabolism level of non-agriculture sector increased and metabolism level of agriculture sector decreased. The cluster of capital and technology was the important impacting factor for social sustainable development of 30 Chinese provinces, Beijing, Tianjin, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Fujian, Shandong, Henan, Hunan, Shaanxi, Gansu, Ningxia and Xinjiang should fasten the modification of industrial structure, and Jilin, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Anhui, Jiangxi, Hubei, Guangdong, Guangxi, Hainan, Chongqing, Sichuan, Guizhou, Yunnan and Qinghai should improve the quality and quantity of resources and the aggregated levels of technologies for solving the uncoordinated problem for the cluster of resource and technology and industrial modification in 30 Chinese provinces. Compared with the year of 2003, in the year of 2007 Chinese provinces' societal metabolism were lightly anomalies, which mean that the social burden was transferred from southern China to northern China. Another finding was that compared with other countries and regions the living condition of most Chinese provinces were still in the developing country' levels except that of Shanghai was in the developed country's level and we should notice past unsustainable developed questions occurred in those countries and regions for our social future development.