低碳导向下土地覆被演变模拟——以深圳市为例

全球碳排放水平的不断增加引起的全球变暖越发严重，导致了严重的自然灾害和经济损失，这种失衡发展的态势促使着各个国家开始探索低碳环保的发展模式。为了探究何种土地利用组成可以更好的为低碳城市服务，以深圳市为研究区，结合2020年土地利用现状结构和2020年土地利用规划结构分别估算出碳汇最大化情景和碳排放量最小化情景下2020年各土地利用类型的数量结构，并运用FLUS模型模拟出深圳市土地利用类型在这两种情景下的空间分布特征。最后，从碳密度和碳排放视角对比这两种情景的低碳效益。研究结果如下：①碳汇最大化和碳排放最小化情景下土地利用总碳盈余均比2020年少，且碳汇最大化情景下土地利用总碳盈余最小。碳汇最大化情景下耕地、园地和林地面积增加而水域和建设用地减少，碳排放最小化情景下园地和林地面积增加来源于草地、水域和建设用地的减少，这两种低碳情景的碳汇能力增强而碳排放量减少；②碳汇最大化和碳排放最小化情景下林地明显增加故而土地利用总碳盈余均比实际情景小，而园地和草地的缩减和扩张是引起两种低碳情景碳密度和碳排放量有差异的主要原因。碳汇最大化和碳排放最小化情景下，西部和东南部主要是碳密度增加和碳排放减少的区域，而中部是碳密度减少和碳排放增加的区域。因此对中部区域进行重点调控，有利于深圳市碳中和和碳达峰的实现。研究可以为深圳的低碳发展提供规划建议，同时给其他区域的低碳规划提供参考意见。

Simulation of urban landscape pattern under the Influence of Low Carbon: A Case Study of Shenzhen

The global warming caused by the increasing carbon emission has become more and more serious, leading to seriously natural disasters and economic losses. This unbalanced development has prompted lots of countries to explore the low-carbon development model. In order to understand the land use structure which is good for decreasing carbon emission, this paper takes Shenzhen as a study area. Combining the current land use structure in 2020 and the land use policy, the quantitative structure of each land use type in 2020 under the scenarios of maximizing carbon sink and minimizing carbon emissions is estimated. And the FLUS (Future Land-Use Simulation) is used to simulate the spatial distribution characteristics of land use types in Shenzhen under these two scenarios. Finally, comparing the low-carbon benefits of the two scenarios from the perspective of carbon density and carbon emissions. The results are as follows:(1) the total carbon surplus of land use under the scenarios of maximizing carbon sinks and minimizing carbon emissions is less than that in 2020, and the total carbon surplus of land use under the scenarios of maximizing carbon sinks is the largest. Under the scenarios of maximizing carbon sinks, the area of cultivated land, garden land and forest land increases while water and construction land decreases. The increase in the area of garden land and forest land under the scenarios of minimizing carbon emissions comes from the reduction of grassland, water and construction land. The carbon in these two low-carbon scenarios increased sink capacity and reduced carbon emissions. (2) Under the scenarios of maximizing carbon sinks and minimizing carbon emissions, forest land increases significantly so that the total carbon surplus of land use is smaller than that of 2020. The difference between the two low-carbon scenarios is mainly grassland and garden land. Under the scenario of maximizing carbon sinks and minimizing carbon emissions, the western and southeastern regions are mainly the areas with increased carbon density and reduced carbon emissions, while the central region is the areas with reduced carbon density and increased carbon emissions. Therefore, the key regulation of the central region is conducive to the realization of carbon neutrality and carbon peak in Shenzhen. It can provide planning advice for low carbon development in Shenzhen and other regions.