区域生态风险评价的关键问题与展望

区域生态风险评价具有多风险因子、多风险受体、多评价终点、强调不确定性因素以及空间异质性的特点,它与传统的生态风险评价在风险源、胁迫因子和评价尺度上具有明显区别。尝试建立了一个基于陆地生态系统的区域生态风险评价框架,同时针对目前区域生态风险评价的研究现状,指出不确定性分析、尺度外推难、评价指标不统一、评价标准不统一、风险因子筛选及优先排序、区域内污染物复合、水生过渡到陆生生态系统风险评价、特殊的人为因素等是目前区域生态风险评价存在的关键问题及难点所在,并提出解决这些问题可能所需的工具、手段和理论方法突破。最后指出区域生态风险观测与数据采集加工、区域生态风险指标体系的统一与整合、区域生态风险评价方法论、区域生态风险的空间分布特征与表达以及区域生态风险评价反馈与管理机制5个方面是区域生态风险评价未来的研究重点。

Emerging issues and prospects for regional ecological risk assessment

Regional ecological risk assessment (regional ERA) was characterized by multiple risk stressors, receptors and endpoints with uncertainty and spatial heterogeneity, and it was distinct from traditional risk assessment in sources, stressors and scales. A framework of regional ERA based on terrestrial ecosystem was established in this paper. A number of major emerging issues in regional ERA such as uncertainty analysis, difficulties in scale extrapolation, disunity of assessment indicators and standards, identification and prioritization of risk factors, mixed pollution in a certain region, transition from aquatic ecosystem to terrestrial ecosystem risk assessment and special human factors were illustrated. In addition, a couple of methods, theories and tools for analyzing these issues in regional ERA were recommended as well. At last, prospects for regional ERA were proposed with emphases on risk monitoring and data collection and processing, integration of index system, new methodology, spatial characterization and expression, feedback and risk management mechanism for regional ERA.