突变级数法在生态适宜度评价中的应用——以镇江新区为例

《开发区区域环境影响评价技术导则》（HJ／T2003）已将生态适宜度评价列为区域环境影响评价的主要内容，并明确提出了三级指标集成的框架要求，但并未推荐具体的技术方法。在当前的环评工作实际中，出现了多种生态适宜度的评价技术，如排列成比较技术、层次分析、模糊评价法等，然而这些方法却普遍存在着权重分配过程中的主观性问题。而对于生态适宜度评价这类多指标集成的问题，无论采用何种技术方法，只有减少权重赋值的主观性才能体现评价结论的科学性。鉴于此，推荐了一种新型的生态适宜度评价方法——突变级数法。通过镇江新区环评的具体案例分析，突变级数法表现出在生态适宜度评价方面较好的适用性。更为重要的是，通过对前述3种方法的数理分析对比，突变级数法表现出主营以下两方面的比较优势：首先该法不使用权重，只需按指标间的内在逻辑关系对指标的重要程度进行排序，很大限度地避免了人为制定权重的主观性；同时，作为定性与定量相结合的技术方法，突变级数法不仅可以对各地块是否适合其利用类型做出评价，还可以运用模型计算出各个地块生态适宜度的具体数值，对不同地块的生态适宜性程度进行定量的对比。诚然，应该客观地指出，在按指标的重要程度排序过程、以及评价指标的量化分级过程中，突变级数法仍然不能完全避免人为主观性，这也需要今后继续探索整合其他技术方法。加以进一步完善。

Application of catastrophe progression method in ecological suitability assessment: A case study on Zhenjiang new area

Ecological suitability assessment has been listed as a important part of content in regional environmental impact assessment according to (HJ/T2003), which only requires to set up three-hierarchy indicators system but without appointed approaches to integrate these indicators. In current practice, several approaches have been attempted to apply, such as arranging and comparison technology, analytic hierarchy process and fussy evaluation. However, due to the subjectivity in weight evaluation, these approaches are afraid of the objectivity of their results. Catastrophe progression method is an approach dealing with multiple indicators integration, which is suitable for the complex system decision because of its simpleness and objectiveness. With a case study on Zhenjiang New Area, the basic principle for catastrophe progression method and its applying steps in ecological suitability assessment are introduced in this paper. The case study shows the applicability of catastrophe progression method in ecological suitability assessment. What is more important, through analyzing and contrasting the mathematical essence of the three above-mentioned approaches, catastrophe progression method demonstrates obvious comparative advantages of two following respects mainly: on one hand, it does not use any weight, only need to arrange indicators in an order of important degree according to the inherent logic relationship among indicators, this avoids making the subjectivity of the artificial weight evaluation in very large limit; on the other hand, as a technological approach that combine qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis together, catastrophe progression method is not only suitable to judge whether a piece of land is suitable for its using patterns, but also provide models to calculate out the concrete number value of ecological suitability, and help to carry on the quantitative contrast of ecological suitability among different pieces of land. However, what should be pointed out objectively is, in the course of arranging indicators in the order of important degree and hierarchizing indicators, the artificial subjectivity in catastrophe progression method can't be avoided completely, so it would be necessary to combine other technological approaches to improve the future application of catastrophe progression method in ecological suitability assessment.