基于结构方程模型分析森林生态安全的影响因素

森林生态安全是维持国家生态安全的重要基础,也是人类生存的必要环境。森林不仅为人类提供木材和其他林副产品等实物价值,还具有美化环境、固碳释氧、涵养水源、防风固沙等生态服务价值,对维持生态平衡有重要作用。生态安全的相关研究多集中在构建评价指标评价森林生态安全,研究内容相对单一,而针对林业生态-产业共生关系的研究,并没有对林业产业类型进行区分,其次,林业产业发展对森林生态安全的影响研究较少。针对上述问题,在考虑产业分类的基础上,基于PSR理论和狭义的森林生态安全定义,利用31个省(市、自治区)3年的林业统计数据,运用PLS结构方程模型分析林业产业发展、森林生态保护对森林生态安全的影响及影响的大小,并分析了各地区森林生态保护的响应活动,为林业产业发展和森林生态保护的政策制定提供依据,从而促进林业的可持续发展。基于上述分析得出如下结果:(1)林业产业发展对森林生态安全无显著影响,但有部分子产业有森林生态安全有影响;(2)林业一产发展对森林生态安全有显著地直接影响,路径系数为0.175,间接影响不显著;(3)林业二产和三产发展对森林生态安全的直接影响和间接都不显著;(4)三类产业对林业产业发展的影响均显著,影响的大小分别为林业二产(0.636)、林业一产(0.204)、林业三产(0.151);(5)森林生态保护对森林生态安全有显著地直接影响,路径系数为0.619;(6)相对于其他地区,西部的森林生态保护活动积极性不高。由此得出如下结论:林业产业发展及林业二产、林业三产对森林生态安全未形成压力,只有林业一产发展对森林生态安全产生了正压力,需进一步加强林业产业结构的调整;加大保护响应力度对森林生态安全的影响大于合理利用的正压力;加强西部区域的森林生态保护力度,提高森林生态安全。

Influence on forest ecological security based on a structural equation model

Forest ecological security is an important foundation for maintaining national ecological security, and is also necessary for human existence. Forests can provide humans with not only physical value, such as wood and other forest by-products, but also ecological service value, such as beautifying the environment, sinking carbon and releasing oxygen, cultivating water sources, resisting wind, and fixing sand, which is fundamental in maintaining ecological balance. Existing research regarding forest ecological security has mainly focused on the construction of an evaluation index of forest ecological safety, and its content is relatively simple. Research on forestry ecological-industrial symbiosis has not determined the influence of the type of forestry industry, and there is limited research on the influence of forestry industry development on forest ecological security. In view of the above problems and industrial classification, based on the PSR(Press-State-Response)theory and narrow definition of forest ecological security, using forestry statistics from 31 provinces (municipalities and autonomous regions) in 3 years, the present study analyzed the influence and degree of influence of forestry industry development, and forest ecological protection on forest ecological security using a PLS structural equation model, and analyzed the response activities of forest ecological protection in different areas. The results will provide a basis for the policy formulation of forestry industry development and ecological protection, to promote forestry sustainable development. The following results showed that (1) forestry industry development had no significant influence on forest ecological security, but some branch industries influenced the forest ecological security; (2) the forestry primary industry had a significant and direct impact on forest ecological security, and the path coefficient of the influence was 0.175, and the indirect effect is not significant; (3) the direct and indirect influence of the forestry secondary and tertiary development on forest ecological security were both not significant; (4) the influence of the three branch industries on forestry industry were significant, and the impact ranking is: forestry secondary industry, primary industry, and tertiary industry, and the path coefficient of the influence are 0.636, 0.204, 0.151, respectively; (5) the forest ecological protection had a significant and direct impact on forest ecological security, and the path coefficient of the influence was 0.619; (6) compared with other areas, the enthusiasm of the activities of forest ecological protection in the West is not high. Therefore, it was concluded that the forestry industry development, and forestry secondary and tertiary industry do not produce pressure on forest ecological security, and only the forestry primary industry produces positive pressure on forest ecological security, so the adjustment of the structure of the forestry industry should be further strengthened. Increasing the protection response has more impact on forest ecological security than the positive pressure of reasonable utilization; the forest ecological protection in the western region should be strengthened to improve forest ecological security.