基于MaxEnt模型评估刺五加在东北地区的空间分布

研究刺五加(Acanthopanax senticosus)在东北地区的潜在分布区及生态适宜性,针对267个刺五加分布样点数据和17个环境因子数据,应用最大熵模型(Maximum Entropy Model,简称MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,GIS)评估刺五加的地理分布。结果表明:最大熵模型的AUC值为0.929,模型预测结果的准确性可信度高,可以用来预测刺五加的地理分布。刺五加生态适宜区主要集中在长白山山脉及小兴安岭东南地区,分布面积约为22.12万km~2,存在概率最高的区域主要在辽宁省东部、吉林省东南部以及黑龙江省中部。影响刺五加地理分布的主要环境因子依次为:年均降水量、森林类型、极端低温、生长季降水量及海拔。耦合了大尺度环境数据、植被群落类型数据与刺五加分布之间的关系,预测了东北地区刺五加的生态适宜区及主导环境因子,为其种群恢复与开发利用提供了科学依据。

Assessing the geographic distribution of Acanthopanax senticosus in Northeastern China based on the MaxEnt model

The maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) and geographic information system (GIS) were used to predict the suitable ecological region for A. senticosus based on 267 plots and 17 ecological factors. The results showed that the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) reached 0.929. The accuracy of model prediction results was high and it can therefore be used to predict the geographical distribution of A. senticosus. The results suggested that the ecological adaptation area of A. senticosus was mainly concentrated in the Changbai mountains and the southeast part of Xiaoxing''anling mountains. The total area of the suitable regions was approximately 221200 km². The main environmental factors that affect the geographical distribution of A. senticosus were successive annual mean precipitation, forest type, extreme minimum temperature, growing season precipitation, and altitude. This paper, combined with large-scale environmental data, vegetation community types, and the distribution of A. senticosus, will enable the assessment of the ecological adaptation area of A. senticosus and the determination of the dominant environmental factors. These results will provide a scientific basis for population recovery and utilization of A. senticosus.