脆弱性研究进展:从理论研究到综合实践

从20世纪60年代脆弱性概念提出到21世纪脆弱性逐渐成为一门独立的新科学,脆弱性已成为评价地区发展状况的依据以及衡量未来发展规划的判据。基于国内外脆弱性研究文献的回顾和总结,回顾了脆弱性概念起源与发展,梳理了脆弱性评价的定性和定量方法,科学评述了21世纪以来脆弱性研究的新进展:评价方法创新、多尺度精细评价、多源数据挖掘、关键要素阈值界定、人为活动影响和脆弱性演化机理综合研究。研究发现21世纪以来脆弱性进展迅速,主要特点为多元化、多角度、精细化和综合化,表现为评价数据和方法的多元化;横向空间对比和纵向时间序列的多角度分析;多尺度精细评价;关键要素阈值与演化机理综合研究。未来,脆弱性研究应完善脆弱性概念框架和理论体系,关注耦合系统脆弱性过程与机制,探究脆弱性驱动因素和演化机理,科学界定脆弱性关键要素阈值,挖掘和提取多源遥感数据信息,开展系统脆弱性动态评价和时空分析,实现脆弱性定量评价与综合实践,最终满足国家和地区可持续发展战略的需要。

Research progress on vulnerability: from theoretical research to comprehensive practice

The concept of vulnerability put forward in the 1960s and the potential vulnerability of the 21st century has gradually developed into an independent new science. Vulnerability research has become the basis for assessing states of development and the criteria for measuring future development plans. This study used previous reports on vulnerability research from China and the rest of the world to review the origin and development of the concept of vulnerability, and the qualitative and quantitative methods for vulnerability assessment. Furthermore, this study scientifically reviewed recent progress in vulnerability research since the beginning of the 21st century, by assessing current evaluation methods, the influence of human activities, multi-scale fine evaluation, multi-source data mining, and the key elements threshold definition. A comprehensive analysis of the mechanism underlying vulnerability evolution was also undertaken. The study found that vulnerabilities research has progressed rapidly since the beginning of the 21st century and that the main features are diversification, multiple angles, refinement, and synthesis. Progress in these areas has led to method and data diversification; multi-angle analyses of transverse spatial correlation and longitudinal time series; multi-scale fine evaluation; and research on the key factor threshold and the mechanism that drives the development of vulnerability. Future studies should effectively strengthen the basic theory and vulnerability mechanism, investigate the processes and mechanisms underlying coupled systems, explore evolutionary mechanisms for vulnerability, scientifically define the thresholds for key elements of system vulnerability, and extract information from multi-source remote sensing data. In addition, vulnerability research should aim to carry out a dynamic evaluation of system vulnerability and use space-time analysis to quantitatively evaluate vulnerability and current comprehensive practice. The research results reported in this review will inform and improve national and regional sustainable development strategies.