京津冀农民专业合作社时空演化及影响因素解析

农民专业合作社是推进我国乡村振兴、精准扶贫战略以及实现小农户与农业现代化发展有机衔接的重要力量。基于"过程-格局-机理"思维,对2007—2013年京津冀13个地市种植业、养殖业、供销与农机专业合作社的时空演化特征及其影响因素进行分析。结果表明:京津冀种植业、养殖业、供销与农机专业合作社数量总体上呈逐年增长趋势,合作社数量与增长速度均为种植业养殖业供销农机;种植业与养殖业专业合作社呈现"两核一带"空间格局,供销与农机专业合作社分布的梯度特征明显,合作社数量为中部南部北部,四类农民专业合作社分布均存在明显的空间负相关性;空间误差模型对种植业与供销专业合作社有更好的拟合效果,空间滞后模型对养殖业与农机专业合作社有更好的拟合效果;地理因素、经济发展水平、第一产业发展水平对四类专业合作社的发展均有显著的正向影响;市场需求对种植业、养殖业合作社影响最大,第一产业发展水平对供销、农机合作社影响最大。

Analysis of the spatial and temporal evolution and influencing factors of farmers' professional cooperatives in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei

Farmers'' professional cooperatives are important for promoting rural revitalization and precise poverty alleviation strategies and realizing the organic connection between small farmers and agricultural modernization. On the basis of "process-pattern-mechanism" thinking, we analyzed the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors of planting industry, aquaculture industry, supply & marketing, and agricultural machinery professional cooperatives in 13 cities in Beijing, Tianjin, and Hebei from 2007 to 2013. The number of planting, aquaculture, supply & marketing, and agricultural machinery professional cooperatives in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei showed an increasing trend year by year, and the number and growth rate of cooperatives were as follows:planting industry > aquaculture industry > supply & marketing > agricultural machinery. The planting and aquaculture professional cooperatives presented the spatial pattern of "two cores and one belt". The distribution of supply & marketing and agricultural machinery professional cooperatives showed obvious gradient characteristics, and the number of cooperatives was as follows:central > southern > northern. Obvious spatial negative correlations were detected among the four types of professional cooperatives. The spatial error model for the planting and supply & marketing professional cooperatives had a better fit, and the spatial lag model for the aquaculture industry and agricultural machinery professional cooperatives had a better fit. Geographical factors, economic development level, and development level of the primary industry all had significant positive impacts on the development of the four types of professional cooperatives. Market demand had the greatest impact on the planting and aquaculture cooperatives, and development level of the primary industry had the greatest impact on the supply & marketing and agricultural machinery cooperatives.