农业面源污染管理政策调控仿真模型研究进展

农业面源污染因其分散性、滞后性和不确定性而成为环境治理的难点。面源污染物迁移转化过程的模拟模型发展迅速，而农业面源污染管理政策仿真评估模型研究相对较为滞后。系统梳理与分析了自上而下宏观目标约束、自下而上微观行为传导及宏观与微观上下耦合三类政策仿真模型研究进展，总结了当前模型的基础理论与方法的优势与不足。本文提出了融合流域水系统过程规律认知，构建宏观政策目标自上而下约束与微观主体行为自下而上传导耦合的农业面源污染政策仿真模型，实现政策仿真模拟在国家、区域、流域与栅格跨尺度上的嵌套传导、参数互验与系统预测，以解决因农业面源污染防治主体的多元性与防治对象的广泛性特征所导致的复杂性系统难题，使得政策效应模拟仿真结果空间显性化，进而实现农业面源污染控制的政策管理由粗放型向精准化方向迈进。

Research progress of simulation models for policies regulating agricultural non-point source pollution

Agricultural non-point source pollution is a difficult and prior point in the field of environmental pollution control due to its dispersion, hysteresis, and uncertainty. In recent years, the process model of non-point source pollution migration and transformation is developing rapidly. In contrast, the research on the simulation evaluation model of agricultural non-point source pollution management policy is lagging behind. The existing evaluations and opinions on policy effects are often merely carried out on a regional scale, which is insufficient to simulate the policy effects heterogeneity caused by the spatial heterogeneity of resource endowments and natural processes. Therefore, realizing the progress of agricultural resources and the environment from macro-management stride forward to precise management, and continuously improving the efficiency of resource utilization is an important development trend in the future. Especially for agricultural non-point source pollution that is closely related to and affected by the spatial heterogeneity of resources and the environment, taking account into the characteristics of geographical environment elements, considering the heterogeneity of environmentally-constrained agricultural production behaviors, and realizing the spatially explicit effects of related management policies are hardly inevitable development trends that should be paid more attention in the upcoming future. This paper systematically sorts out and analyzes the relevant progress of the research on the simulation model of agricultural non-point source pollution management policies in three dimensions:top-down macroscopic target constraints, bottom-up microscopic behavior conduction, and microscopic up and down coupling. Meanwhile, the strengths and weaknesses of the basic theories and methods of each above model are researched and summarized. Furthermore, this paper proposes a simulation model of agricultural non-point source pollution policy that integrates the cognition of the process law of the water system in the basin and combines the top-down constraints of the macro policy objectives as well as the bottom-up conduction of the micro-subject''s behavior. This model can realize the nested conduction, parameter inter-examination, and systematic prediction of policy simulation across the country, region, river basin, and grid across scales, to solve the complex systemic problems caused by the diversity of prevention and control of agricultural non-point source pollution and the extensive characteristics of the control object. Through policy simulation on the cross-scale parameter nesting, result inter-examination and quantitative evaluation in the country, region, river basin, and grid scales, the policy evaluation and assessment are quantified. As a result, these simulation results of policy effects present spatial explicit expression, and then realizing the policy management of agricultural non-point source pollution control from extensive to precise direction.