大型煤电基地开发生态累积效应及定量分析方法研究

大型煤电基地(CEBs)是我国煤基能源和材料集中开发区域和国家能源战略安全重要支撑,合理评价CEBs开发生态影响是CEBs可持续协调开发、科学管理中的难点问题。研究将CEBs开发视为系统工程,与自然生态系统(NES)相关联,深入研究大型煤电基地生态系统(CEBES)的驱动行为、内在结构及主要关系、生态影响途径、生态累积过程和生态累积效应及阈值分析方法。基于CEBs空间和功能定位提出CEBs的概念、内涵和特点,融合构建的CEBES涵盖到自然资源、能源开发行为(煤、电等)、其他人类活动(农、牧、城)和大气、水、土壤及生物域;研究表明CEBES的生态累积状态受三种行为驱动和影响(自然行为、能源开发行为和其他人类活动),通过融合、传导和辐射耦合作用,表现为生态要素损伤、系统结构变化和系统状态失衡三级状态,生态累积具有影响多态性、空间多尺度和过程渐变性特点;明确了生态累积过程、累积效应和阈值及其相互关系,引入反映生态影响累积程度的生态损伤系数,提出四类生态阈值(生态要素、内部结构、系统状态和行为调控);基于系统性和实用性筛选反映生态累积相对状态的60项指标,构建具有“三力”驱动、分区要素耦合和系...

Ecological cumulative effect and quantitative analysis method of developing large-scale coal and electricity bases

Large-scale coal and electricity bases (CEBs) are essentially important to China''s coal-based energy and material centralized development areas as well as national energy security strategy. Hence, it is difficult to reasonably evaluate the ecological impacts of CEBs development in the sustainable and coordinated development and scientific management of CEBs. In response to this, this paper attempted to intensively study the driving behavior, internal structure, primary relationship, ecological influence path, ecological cumulative process and ecological cumulative effect and threshold analysis method of the large-scale coal and electricity base ecosystems (CEBES) through associating the development of CEBs with NES (natural ecology system) as systems engineering. The concept, connotation, and characteristics of CEBs were proposed in accordance with spatial and functional positioning of the CEBs. Then, the amalgamation constructing CEBES were comprised of natural resources, energy development behavior (coal, and electricity, etc.), other human activities (agriculture, animal husbandry, and urban activities), atmosphere, water, soil, and ecosphere. According to the research, the ecological accumulation state of CEBES was driven and influenced by three behaviors, including natural behaviors, energy development behaviors, and other human activities. These three behaviors were manifested as damages to ecological elements, changed in system structure, and imbalance of system state through integration, conduction, and radiation coupling. More precisely, ecological cumulation had the characteristics of affecting polymorphism, spatial multi-scale, and process gradual change. Moreover, by defining the ecological cumulation process, the cumulative effect, thresholds and their mutual relations, ecological damage coefficients were introduced to reflect the cumulative degree of ecological influence. Based on this, four ecological thresholds, including ecological elements, internal structure, system state, and behavior regulation were proposed. Furthermore, an ecological accumulation state indicator system and ecologic comprehensive influencing indexes featuring the drive of "three powers", zoning element coupling, and system evaluation were constructed as 60 indicators screened from the systematic and practical properties for showing the relative status of ecological cumulation. Also, core functions of ecological cumulative state based on unit space body, ecological elements, and ecological cumulative functions of subsystems and systems were constructed. Meanwhile, the analysis models of ecological damage degree and ecological effect threshold as well as the impact analysis method of ecological cumulation of CEBs development were based on the coupling relationship of multi-level ecological damage. The proposed method can provide a theoretical support for ecological impact assessment, ecological security regulation in the developing areas of CEBs,as well as for the development of carbon neutral in China.