伊犁河流域土地利用/覆被变化对生态系统服务价值的影响——基于强度分析模型

人类活动引起的土地利用/覆被变化(Land Use/Cover Change, LUCC)和景观格局的改变会对生态系统服务价值(Ecosystem Service Value, ESV)产生影响，但大多数对LUCC的分析方法都缺乏对各土地利用类型内部转换过程的深入信息挖掘。因此，利用强度分析模型在由浅入深的三个层次(时间间隔、地物类型、转换)上系统地，定量地分析新疆伊犁河流域1980—2015年土地利用变化强度时空分布的动态特征，同时对流域景观格局的演变和生态系统服务价值进行评估研究，探讨ESV对土地利用变化强度的响应特征。结果表明：(1)伊犁河流域土地利用强度呈现先增强后减弱的变化趋势(2)在1980—2015年期间，流域内景观格局斑块聚集性减弱、破碎化加剧、景观多样性增加、各地类景观均衡化发展，生态系统服务总价值增加了0.49亿元，其中水域和林地占流域总生态系统服务价值的47.94%。(3)伊犁河流域优势景观斑块面积的增加、形状多样化、各斑块聚集化发展会促使流域生态系统服务价值的增加，土地利用变化强度与ESV存在明显的正相关关系。通过系统地分析多个层次下的土地利用景观变化，以及生态...

Impact of LUCC on ecosystem services values in the Yili River Basin based on an intensity analysis model

Land use/land cover change (LUCC)and changes in landscape patterns caused by human production and construction activities can have an impact on ecosystem service values (ESV). How to clearly understand and measure the intensity of change in patterns and processes of land use, landscape and ecosystem service values, the intricate relationships among all of them, are relevant problems that need to be solved as soon as possible. At present, most of the analysis methods of land use change lack in-depth information mining of the internal conversion process of each land use type, this deficiency can be made up by using the advantages of intensity analysis model. The dynamic characteristics of the spatial and temporal distribution of land use change intensity in the Xinjiang Yili River Basin from 1980 to 2015 are systematically and quantitatively analyzed at three levels (time interval, feature type, and conversion) from shallow to deep, while the evolution of the watershed landscape pattern and ecosystem service values are assessed and studied to explore the characteristics of ecosystem service values response to land use change intensity. The results show that:(1) In the Yili River Basin, the land use intensity increased first and then decreased, the land use type tends to the equilibrium state from the drastic change. Cropland to construction land shows a stable tendency conversion mode, while the grassland, water area and construction land show a stable avoidable conversion mode. (2)During 1980-2015, at the landscape level of Yili River Basin, patch aggregation weakened, fragmentation intensified, landscape diversity increased, and landscape balanced development of various land use types. At the class level, the fragmentation degree of water area and forestland was the largest among all the land use types, and the fragmentation degree of both were slowed down during the study period. The grassland landscape has great dominance in Yili River Basin, and the grassland patch shape gradually complicated during the study period. The ecosystem services values increased first and then decreased. From 1980 to 2015, the ecosystem service value increased by 49 million yuan, while the ecosystem service value of water area and forestland accounted for 47.94% of the total ecosystem service value in the basin. (3) In Yili River Basin, the increase of dominant landscape patch area, the diversification of landscape patch shape and the aggregation of each patch will promote the increase of ecosystem service values. There is an obviously positive correlation between the intensity of land use change and ecosystem services values. By systematically analyzing the land use landscape changes under multiple levels and the response relationship of the ecosystem service values to them, we can provide a data base and working reference for scientific decision-making on the ecological development of river basin.