城市土地利用变化对生态系统服务价值影响的多情景模拟——以深圳市为例

深圳市作为粤港澳大湾区城市化水平最高、经济最为发达区域，其快速变化的土地利用方式对生态系统服务价值产生了深刻影响。基于1995—2015年深圳市土地利用和生态系统服务价值(ESV)变化规律，运用FLUS模型与ESV算法，设定自然发展、城市发展、耕地保护和生态保护4种情景，模拟不同情景下土地利用变化对ESV的影响。结果表明：(1) 1995—2015年转出量最高的地类是草地，草地与林地间存在密切相互转化关系，除建设用地外，其余地类均呈“入不敷出”态势；(2) 1995—2015年ESV总价值的下降趋势由迅猛变化为和缓，调节服务是深圳市最主要的生态系统服务功能，其次则是支持服务功能；(3)秉持粤港澳大湾区建设基本原则，以2035年为目标年，设定了自然发展、城市发展、耕地保护和生态保护四种情景，发现自然发展和城市发展的ESV总价值损失量较高，建筑面积的增加和草地面积的大规模减少成为两情景下生态系统服务价值减少的关键。生态保护情景下，虽然ESV总价值减少趋势并未有效遏制，但减少量明显少于其余三种情景，成为未来深圳市土地利用优化的最优情景。

Multi-Scenario Simulation of the Impact of Urban Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value in Shenzhen

As a region with the highest level of urbanization and the most developed economy in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, Shenzhen''s rapidly changing land use patterns have had a profound impact on the value of ecosystem services. Based on the law of land use and ESV changes in Shenzhen from 1995 to 2015, using FLUS model and ESV algorithm, four scenarios of natural development, urban development, cultivated land protection and ecological protection were set to simulate the impact of land use changes on ESV under different scenarios. The results show that:(1) The land type with the highest transfer volume from 1995 to 2015 is grassland, and there is a close mutual transformation relationship between grassland and woodland. Except for construction land, the rest of the land types are in a situation of "making ends meet"; (2) From 1995 to 2015, the downward trend of the total value of ESV in 2015 changed from rapid to moderate. Regulating service is the most important ecosystem service function in Shenzhen, followed by supporting service function; (3) Adhering to the basic principles of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area construction, with 2035 As the target year, four scenarios were set for natural development, urban development, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection. It was found that the total ESV value loss of natural development and urban development was relatively high. The increase in building area and the large-scale reduction of grassland area became The key to the reduction in the value of ecosystem services in the two scenarios. Under the ecological protection scenario, although the decrease in the total value of ESV has not been effectively curbed, the reduction is significantly less than the other three scenarios, making it the optimal scenario for future land use optimization in Shenzhen.