“一带一路”地区生态系统服务关系的时空分异与区域响应

“一带一路”沿线多数发展中国家地处生态脆弱区,土地资源空间配置亟待优化。研究生态系统服务间的相互关系可以为土地利用决策提供定量化支持,但该关系在不同地域的表现形式有较大的差异性。基于InVEST模型,评估“一带一路”区域2000、2005、2010和2015年土壤保持、产水量、碳固定和生境质量4种生态系统服务时空变化,通过相关性分析和局部空间自相关分析等方法识别生态系统服务相互关系,以及其对不同地域特征变量的响应。就区域整体而言,土壤保持、产水量、碳固定和生境质量呈现中亚和西亚为一致低值区,而高值区分布不一致的空间格局;生态系统服务之间均呈显著协同关系,但冷热点格局的区域异质性显著。在生态区单元中,泰加林、温带草原和灌木的多种生态系统服务间为权衡关系;在国家单元中,生态系统服务间协同与权衡关系并存。产水量与碳固定间的协同关系对人口分布有良好的响应,而土壤保持与碳固定对人口分布的响应不明显。定量化评估生态系统服务及权衡关系,为区域土地资源优化配置提供依据,研究结果也为“一带一路”地区沿线国家间生态保护合作提供空间指引。

Spatio-temporal differentiation of interaction of ecosystem services and regional responses in the“Belt and Road”area

Most developing countries in the "Belt and Road" region are located in the ecological fragile areas, and the spatial allocation of land resources needs to be optimized urgently. The study on interactions between ecosystem services can provide quantitative support for land use decision, but the expression of this interactions varies greatly in different regions. This study based on InVEST model estimated the value of four ecosystem services from 2000 to 2015, including soil retention, water yield, carton storage, and habitat quality. The spatio-temporal differentiation of ecosystem services were also analyzed. In addition, we quantitatively assessed the spatial patters of interactions among different ecosystem services by applying the correlational analysis method and spatial autocorrelation. The results showed that the spatial pattern of soil retention, water yield, carbon storage, and habitat quality in the central and western Asia was all the low value region, while the distribution of the high value region was inconsistent. There was a significant synergistic relationship between the services, but the regional heterogeneity of the cold hot spot pattern was significant. There was a trade-off between the ecosystem services of taiga forest, temperate steppe and shrub in the ecozonal unit. In a country unit, there were synergies and trade-offs between ecosystem services. The synergistic relationship between water yield and carbon fixation has a good response to population distribution, while the response of soil conservation and carbon fixation to population distribution is not obvious. The quantitative assessment of ecosystem services and trade-offs provides a basis for optimal allocation of regional land resources. The results can provide spatial guidance to the international cooperation for ecological protection in the "Belt and Road" region.