中国快速城市化区域生态系统服务价值预测及权衡研究——以佛山市为例

中国快速城市化区域由于经济迅速发展需要以及人类活动不断干扰，导致土地利用变化剧烈，影响生态系统功能发挥和服务供给，给予生态环境带来巨大压力。分析和预测快速城市化区域生态服务价值（Ecosystem Service Value，ESV）时空演变特征、权衡与协同关系，对协调区域可持续发展具有重要意义。通过FLUS（Future Land Use Simulation）模型、价值当量表估算法、皮尔逊相关分析和双变量自相关等方法，分析并预测2005-2025年佛山市土地利用变化对ESV的影响，同时探究2025年多情景下生态系统服务之间的权衡与协同关系。结果表明：①2005-2025佛山市土地利用格局变化明显，生态保护情景下土地利用变化程度最缓和。②2005-2015年ESV共下降11.41亿元，经济发展情景下的ESV下降趋势最明显。③供给、调节、支持与文化4种单项ESV，分别下降1.95、5.02、4.08、0.36亿元；生态保护情景下的各项ESV均上升。④生态系统服务之间均存在明显的协同作用，经济发展情景下的协同关系最显著；西南和东北区域主要表现为协同关系，局部区域表现为权衡关系。研究结果可为快速城市化区域生态系统功能调控和生态安全格局构建提供一定的思路。

Prediction and tradeoff analysis of ecosystem service value in the rapidly urbanizing Foshan City of China: A case study

Rapid economic development and interference by human activities in rapidly urbanizing areas cause drastic land use changes, which negatively affect ecosystem function and services. This enormously pressurizes the ecological environment; therefore, it is crucial to assess the spatiotemporal evolution of ecosystem service value (ESV) in such rapidly urbanizing areas. The prediction of land use and ESV and the analysis of the relationship between tradeoffs/synergies can provide a basis for scientific decisions regarding regional sustainable development. Therefore, we analyzed and predicted the effect of land use change on the ESV using the FLUS model (Future Land Use Simulation) and the valuation scale estimation in Foshan City from 2005 to 2025. In addition, we explored the tradeoffs and synergies between ecosystem services using Pearson''s correlation and spatial autocorrelation analyses for multiple scenarios in 2025. We demonstrated that (1) the pattern of land use changed significantly and that the degree of land use change in the context of ecological protection was the most moderate. (2) ESV decreased annually, with a total decrease of 1.141 billion yuan from 2005 to 2015; this declining trend was the most obvious under the economic development scenario. (3) The value of four individual ecosystem services, supply, regulation, support, and culture, decreased by 1.95, 5.02, 4.08, and 36 million yuan, respectively. The values of the individual ecosystem services increased in the context of ecological protection. (4) In different scenarios, the ecosystem services showed similar and obvious temporal synergies, especially in the economic development scenario. The southwest and northeast regions were characterized by synergies, whereas the local regions were characterized by tradeoffs. Thus, our study provides a theoretical basis for the regulation of ecosystem function and the construction of an ecological security pattern in rapidly urbanizing areas.