面向森林碳汇供给的企业减排路径选择机理与政策模拟

采用我国碳交易试点省市中钢铁、火电、化工3个碳排放密集型行业89家企业2759个减排单位为样本，通过构建企业减排路径选择模型，模拟分析面向森林碳汇供给的企业在不同减排政策影响下的减排路径及其行业差异。研究表明：（1）企业购买森林碳汇、技术减排和购买配额的成本分别为210元/t、319元/t和158元/t，因边际减排成本不同，行业间企业减排路径选择受减排政策的影响存在明显差异；（2）为激励企业购买森林碳汇以抵消碳排放，应对不同行业企业采取有差别的政策，综合考虑补贴投入和激励效果，应分别对火电企业实施102元/t的技术减排补贴，对化工企业给予技术减排补贴和购买森林碳汇补贴各83元/t，对钢铁企业购买森林碳汇进行168元/t的补贴；（3）在以上分行业施策的影响下，3个行业企业经不同减排路径成本比较后，均将有约50%的减排单位选择购买森林碳汇。结合国家应对气候变化战略目标和各行业发展规律，研究结果为积极引导企业节能减排、充分挖掘森林碳汇市场潜力、减小企业减排成本压力等提供了科学依据。

Selection mechanism and policy simulation of enterprises' emission-reduction path facing forest carbon sequestration supply

Based on 2759 emission reduction units of 89 enterprises in three carbon emission intensive industries including steel, thermal power and chemical industry in China''s carbon trading pilots, this paper constructs an enterprise emission-reduction path selection model to simulate and analyze the emission reduction paths and industrial differences of enterprises facing forest carbon sequestration supply under the influence of different emission reduction policies. The results show that:(1) the cost of purchasing forest carbon sequestration, technology emission reduction and purchasing quota are 210 yuan/ton, 319 yuan/ton and 158 yuan/ton, respectively. Because of the different marginal emission reduction cost, there are obvious differences in the selection of emission reduction path among enterprises in different industries affected by the emission reduction policy. (2) In order to encourage enterprises to purchase forest carbon sequestration to offset their carbon emissions, different policies should be adopted for enterprises in different industries. Considering the subsidy input and incentive effect comprehensively, government should implement 102 yuan/ton technology emission reduction subsidies for thermal power enterprises, 83 yuan/ton technology emission reduction subsidies and 83 yuan/ton forest carbon sequestration subsidies respectively for chemical enterprises, as well as 168 yuan/ton carbon sequestration subsidies for steel enterprises. (3) Under the influence of the above policies according to different industries, about 50% of emission reduction units from each industry will choose to purchase forest carbon sequestrations by comparing the cost of different emission reduction paths. Combined with the national strategic goal of coping with climate change and the development law of various industries, the results of this paper provide a scientific basis for actively guiding enterprises to save energy and reduce emissions, fully tapping the market potential of forest carbon sequestration, and reducing the cost pressure of emission reduction for the enterprises.