绿色空间格局变化及其驱动机理——以南京都市区为例

随着城镇化进程不断推进，绿色空间在生态环境维护和生活品质提升等方面作用逐渐凸显，对区域绿色、协调、可持续发展具有重要意义。以2000-2015年土地利用类型数据为基础，运用空间分析方法，揭示南京市绿色空间格局变化的特征与规律，并从经济驱动、政府调控、社会生长力等方面构建计量经济学模型解析其演变机理。结果显示：南京都市区绿色空间集中分布在远郊区与近郊区，中心城区少量零散分布，具有明显的空间梯度特征；总体规模呈减少趋势，近郊区减少最为剧烈，远郊区次之，主要以副城、新城的边缘式蚕食、中心城区及副城内吞式收缩为主，少量的新城穿孔式收缩和廊道式切割为辅。绿色空间格局变化受多种因素的共同驱动影响，产业发展、经济增长等经济驱动力是绿色空间减少的主导作用力，需求意愿等社会生长力的作用相对并不显著，而规划政策与公共投资等政府调控反而对绿色空间保护与建设具有一定正向作用。

Green space pattern changes and its driving mechanism: a case study of Nanjing metropolitan area

With the urbanization process advancing, green space plays an increasingly prominent role in maintaining ecological environment and improving living quality, which is of great significance to regional sustainable development. Based on the land use data from 2000 to 2015, this study revealed the spatiotemporal change characteristics of green space in Nanjing metropolitan area applying spatial analysis methods in GIS. And from three aspects of economic driver, government regulation and social development, an econometric model was constructed to analyze the driving mechanism. The results showed that the green space in Nanjing metropolitan area is concentrated in outer suburbs and suburbs but scattered in central urban area on a small scale, with obvious spatial gradient characteristics. The overall scale of green space has decreased, with the most severe reduction in suburbs, followed by outer suburbs. The evolution model was mainly dominated by outspread shrinkage in sub-cities and the new cities and endocytosed shrinkage in the central city and sub-cities, supplemented by a small number of perforated shrinkage and corridor-cut shrinkage in new cities. The study also found that the changes of green space were driven by many factors; the economic drivers such as industrial development and economic growth were the leading forces for the reduction of green space, and the effect of social development was relatively not significant, while government policies such as planning policies and public investment had a certain positive effect on the protection and construction of green space.