能源活动CO2排放不同核算方法比较和减排策略选择

能源活动CO₂排放是温室气体排放的最重要部分,这部分CO₂排放量的核算是温室气体清单编制和减排方案制定的关键和基础。采用直接法、电热终端法和隐含终端法核算了2009年中国能源消费的CO₂排放量,对不同核算法的CO₂排放部门分布、部门排放强度进行了比较,明确不同核算方法的差异和适用范围。采用电热终端法的核算结果定量分析了各产业部门和工业行业的经济增长和排放强度变化对中国能源活动CO₂排放增长的影响。结果表明,中国2009年隐含终端CO₂排放量为65.6亿t,略高于直接和电热终端CO₂排放量62.2亿t。3种核算方法的CO₂排放部门分布和排放强度有明显的差异:电、热力生产与供应业的直接排放占比为45.2%,而电热终端CO₂排放仅占4.5%;制造业的直接法、电热终端法和隐含终端法核算的CO₂排放占比分别为35.3% 、61.1%和65.5%,是终端能源消费CO₂排放最主要的部门;制造业、电热力生产与供应业和交通运输业的电热终端CO₂排放强度分别为2.166、1.72和1.622 t CO₂/万元GDP,是排放强度较高的部门。在产业部门中,制造业的色金属冶炼及压延加工业、非金属矿物制品业等5个行业以9.8%的经济增长贡献,排放了52.4%的CO₂,是产业结构调整、技术和工程减排的重点;服务业以7.2%的CO₂排放,贡献了38.4%的经济增长,应作为中国低碳经济优先发展的产业。

The comparison of CO2 emission accounting methods for energy use and mitigation strategy: a case study of China

CO₂ emissions from fossil fuel use are the most dominant part of Greenhouse GAS (GHG) emission, which is foundation of GHG inventory and GHG mitigation strategy. In this paper, inventory accounting method, terminal energy consumption accounting method (include electricity & heat terminal method and embodied CO₂ terminal method) were applied to estimate the CO₂ emission of energy consumption activities in China, and the distribution in sectors as well as emissions intense of sectors were evaluated. The accounting results were compared to explain the properties and applications of three methods. Furthermore, the sectors contributions of economic growth and carbon intensity to the increasing of CO₂ emission in China were analyzed. The results show that total CO₂ emissions accounted by embodied terminal energy consumption method are 6.56 billion tons in 2009, slightly more than the amount by another two methods that is 6.22 billion tons. CO₂ emission distribution in sectors and emission intensity of sectors are different significantly by the three accounting methods. The main sectors of direct CO₂ emission by inventory method is electricity & heat generation sector, accounting for 45.2%, while only accounting for 4.5% by electricity & heat terminal method. Manufacturing is the main sector of energy consumption which accounting for 35.3%, 61.1% and 65.5% by inventory method, electricity & heat terminal method and embodied CO₂ terminal method. By electricity & heat terminal method, top three CO₂ emission intensity sectors are manufacturing, electricity and heat generation, transportation, which is 21.66, 17.2 and 16.22 tCO₂/1000RMB respectively. In manufacturing sector, top five industries, such as ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, non-metallic mineral production industry, contribute 52.4% emissions with the 9.8% economic growth. They are key industries for GHG mitigation by taking technology innovation and implementing mitigation projects. Services industry emits 9.8% CO₂, while contributes 38.4% economic growth. It should be priority development industry of low carbon economic in China.