基于投入产出的中国省际农业水-土-碳足迹流动分析

水-土-碳多要素耦合研究是近年来资源环境领域的热点之一。开展农业水-土-碳足迹流动分析有助于揭示农业生产和贸易带来的跨区域环境影响，对不同区域资源可持续管理和协同减排具有重要意义。以中国30个省级行政区为研究对象，基于投入产出方法科学识别不同省区农业水、土、碳足迹的空间格局、流动特征及关联状况。主要结论如下：（1）省域尺度农业水、土、碳足迹具有较大的空间差异，这归因于自然条件、社会经济、产业结构、耕作方式及种植结构等的区域差异；（2）农业水、土、碳足迹流动主要从西部和北部流向东部和东南部地区，这与农产品市场供需关系密切相关，表明东部和东南部地区农产品消费导致了西部和北部地区资源的虚拟占用和隐含碳排放；（3）农业水、土、碳足迹及其强度之间存在一定程度的关联关系，经济发展状况、地区产业结构、自然条件状况等因素均会影响某一要素或几种要素的消耗强度，进而影响其关联作用；农业水、土、碳足迹流动表现出明显的关联性特征，空间关联网络存在不均衡性，关联渠道有待丰富；（4）建议未来加强农业技术革新，提高机械化、智能化生产水平；通过土地规模化经营实现水土资源的节约集约利用；开展基于水-土-碳跨区域影响的横向农业生态补偿，实现中国省际协同减排和资源优化。

The flow analysis of inter-provincial agricultural water, land and carbon footprints in China based on input-output model

Water-land-carbon nexus is one of the hotspots in resources and environment research in recent years. Studies on the flow tracks of agricultural water, land, carbon footprints can reveal the cross-regional environmental influences bring about by agricultural production and trade, which is of great significance for the optimal allocation and sustainable management of water and land resources and the collaborative carbon emission reduction in different regions. Taking the 30 provincial administrative regions of China as the study cases, this paper calculates the agricultural water, land and carbon footprintss by multi-regional input-output analysis, and scientifically explores and identifies the spatial patterns, flow tracks and correlation characteristics of the agricultural water, land and carbon footprints. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The spatial patterns of the agricultural water, land and carbon footprint at the provincial scale in China are quite different, which can be attributed to the diversity of natural conditions, social economy, industrial structure, methods of cultivation and planting formation in different regions. (2) From the perspective of the inter-provincial flow tracks, the agricultural water, land and carbon footprints roughly transfer from the western and the northern regions to the eastern and the southeastern regions of China, which is closely related to the supply and demand of agricultural products market. This indicates that the consumption of agricultural products in the eastern and the southeastern regions has led to the virtual occupation of water and land resources and hidden carbon emissions in the western and the northern regions. (3) There are correlations among the agricultural water, land and carbon footprints and the intensities, but the status and degree of correlations vary in different regions. Economic development, regional industrial structure, natural conditions and other factors can affect the consumption intensity of water, land and carbon, which will further affect the correlation between the them. The flow tracks of agricultural water, land, carbon footprints show significant spatial correlation characteristics. The spatial correlation network is unbalanced, and the correlation channels need to be enriched. (4) It is suggested that the agricultural technology innovation in the future should be strengthened, and the level of mechanization utilization and intelligent production should be improved. Large-scale land management should be promoted to realize the economical and intensive utilization of water and land resources. The agricultural ecological compensation measures based on the cross-regional impacts of water-land-carbon nexus should be adopted to realize the cooperation of provinces for the carbon emission reduction and resource optimization in China.