长三角城市群城市空间形态与碳收支时空耦合关系

区域碳收支动态监测与评估是推动城市群低碳发展和碳达峰的关键基础问题。设计和分析了长三角城市群区域碳收支与城市空间形态的时空耦合关系。基于2001、2005和2010年碳排放、净初级生产力、土地利用和土壤等数据构建了长三角城市群区域碳收支的时空分布估算模型，接着利用地理加权回归模型分析了城市空间形态景观格局指数与碳收支的相关性，最后结合地理探测器定量分析了景观格局指数因子对碳收支的影响及其交互作用。研究结果表明：（1）长三角城市群碳收支存在明显的空间异质性，总体呈现南部高，北部次之，东部低的特征；（2）同时，长三角城市群碳收支具有明显时间异质性，2001、2005和2010年呈现减少的趋势，其中2001-2005年下降幅度较大；（3）斑块类型面积、城市斑块数量、最大斑块指数、景观形状指数与碳收支具有负相关性；边缘密度、城市建成区斑块密度与碳收支具有显著正相关性；（4）2001年、2005年和2010年的建成区总面积是碳收支空间异质性的主要驱动因素；斑块类型面积与其他因子的交互作用对碳收支空间异质性影响贡献程度比其他因子间交互作用较强。一定程度揭示了城市空间形态景观格局与碳收支时空分布的相关性，可为碳达峰/碳中和、城市形态优化等提供科学参考。

Spatiotemporal coupling relationship between urban spatial morphology and carbon budget in Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration

Dynamic monitoring and evaluation of regional carbon budget is a key and basic problem for promoting the low carbon development and carbon peak in urban agglomeration. It proposed and analyzed the spatiotemporal coupling relationship between regional carbon budget and urban spatial morphology in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration. Firstly, based on the carbon emissions, net primary productivity, land use and soil data in 2001, 2005, and 2010, the spatiotemporal distribution estimation model of carbon budget in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was constructed. Then, the correlation between landscape pattern indices of urban spatial morphology and carbon budget was analyzed with the geographical weighted regression model. Finally, the influence of landscape pattern index factors on carbon budget and their interaction was quantitatively analyzed by geographical detector. The results show that:(1) the carbon budget of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration presents obviously spatial heterogeneity, which is higher in the south of the urban agglomeration, followed by the north and lower in the east; (2) The carbon budget of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration also presents obviously temporal heterogeneity, showing a decreasing trend from 2001 to 2010 with a large decline from 2001 to 2005; (3) The area of patch type, the number of urban patches, the maximum patch index, and the landscape shape index are negatively correlated with carbon budget while edge density, urban built-up area patch density and carbon budget have significantly positive correlation; (4) The total built-up areas in 2001, 2005 and 2010 are the main driving factors for the spatial heterogeneity of carbon budget; the interaction between patch type area and other factors contributes more to the spatial heterogeneity of carbon budget than others. This paper reveals the correlation between landscape pattern indices of urban spatial morphology and spatiotemporal distribution of carbon budget, which can provide scientific reference for carbon peak/carbon neutralization and urban morphology optimization, etc.