京津冀地区生态用地稳定性格局及其影响因素

探索生态用地稳定性格局对动态背景下区域生态规划与管理具有重要意义。本文基于2000-2010-2020年京津冀地区生态用地数据基础，提取2000-2010和2010-2020年间稳定性生态用地，借鉴并应用生态用地稳定性指数予以衡量区域生态用地的时空稳定效应，并利用Arcgis平台空间统计工具对生态用地稳定性空间格局进行分析，最后基于地理探测模型对生态用地稳定性的影响机制及其区域差异进行探索。研究结果显示，（1）2000-2010年和2010-2020年，京津冀地区稳定性生态用地有所减少，集中分布在内蒙古草原生态区和燕山-太行山山地林生态区。（2）两时期生态用地稳定性指数分别为90.85和83.86，呈现“西北高，东南低”。生态用地稳定性指数等级结构显示前期极低稳定性和极高稳定性面积占绝对主导，后期极低、高和极高稳定性面积共同主导。生态用地稳定性指数空间格局呈现显著冷热点效应，热点区汇集在燕山-太行山山地林生态区和内蒙古草原生态区，冷点区集中在京津唐城市生态区和华北平原生态区。（3）整体研究区高程、坡度、地貌和土壤类型等地理要素解释力较高；平原区内温度因子解释力度最为突出，地理因素和社会经济因素的解释力度也均较显著；山区内国内生产总值、人口密度、居民点密度和道路密度等社会经济因素影响作用更加突出。

Spatial pattern of ecological land stability analysis and influencing factor in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Exploring ecological land stability patterns is of great importance for regional ecological planning and management in the context of the dynamic development of urbanization. Built on the data on ecological land use in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2000, 2010, and 2020, we extracted the stable ecological land in two periods (2000-2010 and 2010-2020). And we used the ecological land stability index to describe the spatial and temporal dynamics of ecological land stability. At the same time, we analyzed the spatial pattern of the ecological land stability index. Finally, we utilized the geographical detection model to explore the influencing mechanism and regional differences in ecological land stability. The results showed that: (1) The area of stable ecological land decreased in two periods, which were more in Inner Mongolia Grassland Ecological Zone and Yan-Taihang Mountain Forest Ecological Zone. (2) Ecological land stability index is 90.85 and 83.86 in two periods, which were higher in the northwest and were lower in the southeast. The area of the grade of stability, which is named extremely low and extremely high, was the most important from 2000 to 2010. The area of the class of stability, which is called extremely low, high, and extremely high, was similar from 2010 to 2020. The ecological land stability index has cold/hot spots, the area of the hot spots was more in Yan-Taihang Mountain Forest Ecological Zone and Inner Mongolia Grassland Ecological Zone. The area of the cold spots was more in JJT City Ecological Zone and North China Plain Ecological Zone. (3)In the study area, the explanation intensity of the elevation, the slope, the landform, and the soil factors is higher. In the plain area, the temperature had the highest explanatory power. The geographical and social-economic factors also had superior explanatory power; in the mountainous area, the influence of GDP, population density, settlement density, and road density was more pronounced.