基于适应性循环理论与压力-状态-响应框架的区域社会-生态系统演进研究

二十一世纪以来都市圈快速扩张对区域社会-生态系统的可持续发展构成威胁，基于动态演进视角的区域社会-生态系统运行机制解析备受关注。本文以南京都市圈为例，从区域和城市两个尺度，基于适应性循环理论与PSR框架解析2000-2019年近二十年来都市圈社会-生态系统的交互适应循环阶段，以及每个阶段系统的差异化应激响应机制。研究表明南京都市圈社会-生态系统整体经历了3个适应循环周期，现处于新一轮的适应性循环阶段，系统适应性呈上升趋势，但社会子系统和生态子系统尚未取得协调。都市圈内各城市的社会-生态系统演进类型有所不同，可分为稳定增长型、波动增长型、不均衡发展型和生态危机型四类。未来需要采取差异化的社会-生态系统治理策略，确保都市圈整体优化发展。

Evolution analysis of regional social-ecological systems based on adaptive cycle theory and Pressure-State-Response framework

Since the 21st century, human activities such as the rapid expansion of metropolitan area have posed a threat to the sustainable development of regional social-ecological system. The analysis of the operation mechanism of regional social-ecological system based on the perspective of dynamic evolution has attracted much attention. From two different scales of region and city, combined with the adaptation cycle theory and Pressure-State-Response (PSR) framework, this study analyzes the interactive adaptation cycle stages of 10 urban social-ecological systems in Nanjing metropolitan area and Nanjing metropolitan area in last 20 years, as well as the differential stress response mechanism of each stage system. This study decomposes the social-ecological system into social subsystem and ecological subsystem, and identifies the stage of the system through the change characteristics of social subsystem, ecological subsystem and social-ecological system adaptability. The results show that from 2000 to 2019, the whole social-ecological system of Nanjing metropolitan area has experienced three adaptation cycles, the time of adaptation cycle increases in turn, the overall adaptability of the system showed an upward trend, and the rising stage of adaptability exceeds 80% of the whole stage, which indicate that the overall development of Nanjing metropolitan area has been good in the past two decades. The interactive adaptability of social-ecological system is gradually rising in a cycle. However, during this period, the adaptability of the ecosystem subsystem has declined for many times, resulting in the instability of the whole system, which is also the main reason for the system entering the release phase. At the same time, in the past years, the social subsystem and ecological subsystem of the metropolitan area have not been coordinated. At present, metropolitan areas are in the rapid growth stage of a new round of adaptation cycle. The trend of rapid growth will last for some time, and then the growth rate will slow down and enter the stage of long-term stable development. At the urban level, the development of the ten cities in the metropolitan area also has the characteristics of adaptive cycle, but the development stages of urban social-ecological system are different. The adaptability of ecological subsystems in almost all cities fluctuated greatly, which caused a long-term negative impact on cities. Due to the sacrifice of ecological and environmental benefits in pursuit of rapid social and economic growth, the disharmony between the development of ecological subsystem and social subsystem in most cities is very obvious. Summarizing the development characteristics of 10 cities in Nanjing metropolitan area in the past 20 years, they can be divided into four types: stable growth type, fluctuating growth type, unbalanced development type and ecological crisis type. In the future, differentiated social-ecological systems governance strategies need to be adopted to ensure the overall optimal development of the metropolitan area.