环杭州湾城市群生态环境与社会经济耦合协调关系及其影响因素

生态环境与社会经济之间的耦合协调关系是可持续发展关注的一个重点和热点。以环杭州湾城市群为研究对象，构建环杭州湾城市群生态环境与社会经济耦合协调度综合评价指标体系，借助ArcGIS软件，采用耦合协调度模型和Pearson相关分析，分析环杭州湾城市群在2000—2019年间生态环境、社会经济发展指数与耦合协调度的演变特征及其影响因素。结果表明：(1)2000—2019年间环杭州湾城市群的社会经济指数呈稳定上升趋势，生态环境指数呈先上下波动后逐年上升的变化趋势；(2)2000—2014年间环杭州湾城市群社会经济的发展速度大于生态环境的发展速度，2015—2019年间生态环境的发展速度大于社会经济发展速度；(3)2000—2019年，环杭州湾城市群生态环境和社会经济之间的耦合协调度从良好协调过度到了完美协调，其中，2000年上海和杭州的耦合协调度小于其它城市，2019年苏州是杭州湾城市群中唯一没有达到完美协调的城市；(4)人口密度、空气质量、工业废水排放量、工业固体废弃物是环杭州湾城市群生态环境与社会经济耦合协调度提高的主要阻碍因素。

Coordinated relationship and influencing factors of ecological environment and socio-economic coupling of urban agglomeration around Hangzhou Bay in China

The coupling and coordination relationship between social economy and ecological environment is a key concern and hot spot for sustainable development. Taking the Hangzhou Bay city cluster in China as the research object, this paper constructed a comprehensive evaluation index system for the coupling and coordination degree of social economy and ecological environment. With the help of ArcGIS software, the coupling and coordination degree model, and the Pearson correlation coefficient, the paper analyzed the ecological environment, social and economic development index, and coupling and coordination degree and their influencing factors of the Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration from 2000 to 2019. The results showed that: (1) from 2000 to 2019, the socio-economic index of the Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration presented a stable upward trend, while the ecological environment index showed an up-and-down fluctuation followed by an upward trend year by year; (2) During 2000-2014, the development rate of the socio-economic index was greater than the growth rate of the ecological environment index. The development rate of the ecological environment was greater than the development rate of the social economy from 2015 to 2019; (3) From 2000 to 2019, the coupling coordination between the socio-economic and ecological environment of the Hangzhou Bay Rim City Cluster overtook good coordination to perfect coordination. Among which, the coupling coordination of Shanghai and Hangzhou in 2000 lagged behind the other cities, and Suzhou was the only city in the Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration that did not reach perfect coordination in 2019; (4) Population density, air quality, industrial wastewater emissions, and industrial solid waste were the main hindering factors for the improvement of the coupling coordination of the Hangzhou Bay urban agglomeration.