节肢动物群落稳定性分析灰典型相关模型及其应用

稳定性是生态系统最重要的特征之一。根据累加生成可增强两单调增序列线性相关性原理,应用典型相关分析方法,以比值mn/mp(mp为害虫个体数,mn为天敌个体数)为测度群落稳定性的指数,构建群落稳定性分析灰典型相关模型。具体做法是:(1)将各种群的数量序列按害虫各次总数量的递增顺序进行重排,用各种群数量序列的极差去除该序列,将其无量纲化,然后对各序列进行累加生成;(2)以害虫各种群为一组变量,天敌各种群为另一组变量,应用典型相关分析的方法,求出各对典型变量。对达到线性拟合要求的典型变量对,以害虫为自变量,天敌为因变量建立回归方程,并对这些方程中的变量进行累减还原;(3)对这些方程进行线性组合,合并成一个方程,组合系数是使这些害虫典型变量的线性组合与害虫总数量序列的线性相关值达到最大;(4)引进转换系数的概念,建立天敌、害虫总量相互转换模型,该模型称之为灰典型相关模型,通过模型可分析各种群在群落稳定性中的作用。将模型应用于福州金山茶园节肢动物群落的稳定性分析,所得结果与实际基本相符,表明建立的灰典型相关模型是可行的。

A grey canonical correlation model for analyzing the stability of arthropod community and its application in the tea plantation of Jinshan,Fuzhou,Fujian Province

Stability is one of the most important characteristics in ecosystems.Based on the principle that the accumulative generation can enhance the linear correlation of two monotone incremental sequences and the methods of canonical correlation analysis,a grey canonical correlation model is developed for analyzing the effect of population on the stability of community,and the ratio of mn/mp(where mp is the total individual numbers of pests and mn their natural enemies)used as a stability index of community.The modeling procedure consists of the following steps:(1)the individual number sequences of populations are rearranged according to increasing sequence of total individual numbers of pests in the community,and the sequences divided by the differences of various populations for dimensionless transform and accumulative generation;(2)the canonical variables are determined by the canonical correlation analysis of pests and their enemies,the pests and their natural enemies used as independent and dependent variables,and regression equations established based on the canonical variable pairs which meet the demand of linear fitting and inverse operation of accumulative generation;(3)the equations are linearly combined with a set of coefficients to ensure that the linear combination of canonical variable of pests in regression equations has the greatest correlation coefficients with the sequence of total individual numbers of pests in the model;and(4)a model of mutual conversion of total individual numbers between the pests and their natural enemies is developed by introducing the concept of conversion coefficient,which is called a grey canonical correlation model and can be used to analyze the effect of populations on the stability of community.The model has also been employed to analyze the stability of arthropod community in the tea plantation of Jinshan,Fuzhou,Fujian Province.The results is basically consistent with the data obtained from the field study,which well indicates that the model is feasible and applicable.