Survival and causes of death of European Roe Deer before and after Eurasian Lynx reintroduction in the Bavarian Forest National Park

The return of the Eurasian Lynx to Central Europe has led to a number of conflicts. A primary subject of discussion involves its predation on other wildlife species. Here, we investigated the influence of lynx on its main prey, Roe Deer, in the Bavarian Forest National Park in south-eastern Germany. We compared the survival rates of deer before and after reintroduction of lynx. The analysis is based on data from 1984 to 1988 and 2005 to 2008 of 88 and 99 radio-collared Roe Deer, respectively. During the first period, 35 deer deaths were documented; during the second period, 41 deaths were documented. The causes of death in the second period were lynx 44%, road kill 15%, hunting 12%, and other causes 29%. We used the Cox model to determine the influence of covariables on the hazard rate, which made it possible to consider interactions between the variables. The resulting model includes the four main effects sex, age, presence of lynx, and severity of first winter, and the three interactions—presence of lynx:sex, age:severity of first winter, and sex:severity of first winter, which had a statistically significant influence on Roe Deer survival.