基于MaxEnt模型的濒危观赏植物福建柏潜在适生区预测

福建柏（Fokienia hodginsii（Dunn）Henry et Thomas）是我国特有珍稀濒危植物，具有重要的经济价值和观赏价值，了解其潜在的适宜分布区将有利于科学合理地制定保护措施。本文基于84个福建柏实际分布数据和11个环境变量参数，运用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）和地理信息系统（GIS）对福建柏在中国的适生区进行预测。结果显示：（1）ROC曲线下面积AUC值为0.966，表明MaxEnt模型预测效果精准；（2）福建柏的高度适生区主要集中在武夷山、罗霄山和南岭等大型山脉，包括江南丘陵、闽浙丘陵、两广丘陵及四川盆地的局部区域；（3）刀切法（Jackknife）检测结果表明，影响福建柏分布的主要环境因子是最冷月最低温、年降水量和最干月降水量，推断夏秋季雨水对福建柏授粉的影响可能是限制其自然更新和分布的关键因素。

Prediction of potential suitable distribution of Fokienia hodginsii (Dunn) Henry et Thomas based on MaxEnt model

Fokienia hodginsii (Dunn) Henry et Thomas is a rare and endangered species in China with important economic and ornamental value. Prediction of suitable habitats of F. hodginsii will help to facilitate practical and scientifically based protection measures for this species. Based on distribution data of 84 sites and 11 environmental factors in China, the MaxEnt model and geographic information system (GIS) were used to predict potentially suitable habitats of F. hodginsii. Results showed that the mean value of the area under the receiver operation characteristic curve (ROC) was 0.966 and the accuracy of the model was high, and thus suitable for predicting potential habitats of F. hodginsii. The suitable habitats were mainly located in the Wuyi, Luoxiao, and Nanling mountains, including hilly areas south of the Yangtze River, Fujian, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Guangxi, and the Sichuan basin. Jackknife results showed that the major factors determining the potential suitable distribution were minimum temperature of the coldest month, annual precipitation, and precipitation of the driest month. We deduced that summer and autumn precipitation resulting in pollination failure may be a key factor limiting the natural renewal and distribution of F. hodginsii.