国家重点保护野生植物的保护现状及潜在分布区预测分析

野生植物是自然生态系统的重要组成部分,中国是野生植物种类最丰富的国家之一。研究国家重点保护野生植物的分布特征、保护现状以及潜在分布区,对于制定与支持生物多样性保护策略具有重要意义。该研究基于1 032种(隶属于129科315属)国家重点保护野生植物,利用前5%丰富度算法识别其热点地区,并与自然保护区叠加评估其保护成效、确定保护空缺,进而运用MaxEnt模型预测了国家重点保护野生植物的潜在分布区分布与变化趋势。结果表明:(1)中国南部和西南部是国家重点保护野生植物物种丰富度最高的地区,尤其是四川中部、云南南部和东南部、广西北部、广东北部与海南。(2)热点网格的保护成效分析表明,171个(85.50%)热点网格得到了有效保护(含80.50%的物种),29个(14.50%)热点网格未得到自然保护区的保护(含51.20%物种)。(3)通过比较当前与未来气候变化下国家重点保护野生植物的潜在分布区分布,发现未来潜在分布区将向西藏东南部、广西西南部、广东南部以及福建南部等地扩张,而向环四川盆地、云南南部和贵州南部等地缩减。因此,需要加强这些区域生物多样性的动态监测,持续关注气候变化对该区域国家重点保护野生植物的影响。基于该研究所确定的热点网格、保护成效以及潜在分布区的分析结果,可为国家重点保护野生植物多样性优先保护区的确定和保护政策的制定提供有力的数据支持与参考。

Conservation status and prediction analysis of potential distribution of National Key Protected Wild Plants

Wild plants are an important part of the natural ecological system, and China is one of the countries with the most abundant wild plant species. It is of great significance to study the distribution characteristics, protection status and potential distribution areas of National Key Protected Wild Plants for supporting and formulating biodiversity conservation strategies. Based on 1 032 species(belonging to 315 genera, 129 families)of National Key Protected Wild Plants, this study used the top 5% richness algorithm to identify hotspots, and superimposed with nature reserves to evaluate the conservation effectiveness and determine conservation gaps of current nature reserves. Furthermore, this study used maximum entropy(MaxEnt)model to predict the potential distribution and range shifts of National Key Protected Wild Plants. The results were as follows:(1)The areas with the highest species richness of the National Key Protected Wild Plants mainly confined to the south and southwest of China, especially in central Sichuan, southern and southeastern Yunnan, northern Guangxi, northern Guangdong and Hainan.(2)The conservation effectiveness of hotspot grids showed that 171(85.50%)hotspot grids were efficient protection(including 80.50% of total species), and 29 hotspot grids(14.50%)were not effectively protected(including 51.20% of total species).(3)By comparing the potential distribution area of National Key Protected Wild Plants under current and future climate scenarios, it is found that potential distribution area would expand to southeastern of Xizang, southwestern Guangxi, southern Guangdong, and southern Fujian in the future, while those around Sichuan Basin, southern Yunnan and southern Guizhou would shrink. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen the dynamic monitoring of biodiversity and pay continuous attention to the impact of climate change on National Key Protected Wild Plants in the region. Based on the analysis results of hotspot grids, conservation effectiveness and potential distribution areas identified in this study, strong data support and reference can be provided for the identification of diversity priority protected areas for National Key Protected Wild Plants and the formulation of conservation policies.