气候变化下青藏高原两种云杉植物的潜在适生区预测

为了预测未来气候变化下云杉属植物的适宜生境，选择青藏高原暗针叶林的两种重要建群植物丽江云杉（Picea likiangensis）和紫果云杉（Picea purpurea）作为研究对象，采用MaxEnt模型预测21世纪50年代（2050s）和70年代（2070s）两物种在未来气候情景下的潜在分布，并结合ArcGIS计算物种分布面积和空间格局变化。结果表明：（1）丽江云杉的潜在适宜分布区主要集中在四川西南部和西藏东部。紫果云杉潜在适宜分布区主要集中在四川西北部、甘肃南部、青海东南部，以及西藏东部地区。（2）在未来两个时期丽江云杉的分布面积总体呈增加趋势，紫果云杉呈先增加后减少的趋势，但与其现代分布面积相比，两种云杉的总适生区面积都有不同程度的增加。（3）丽江云杉适宜生境未来可能会向北迁移，而紫果云杉可能会向西迁移。（4）影响丽江云杉和紫果云杉潜在地理分布的主要气候因子为最暖季降水量和最暖季均温。研究结果可为丽江云杉和紫果云杉在未来气候变化情景下的可持续管理提供一定的理论依据和参考价值。

Predicting Potential Distribution of Two Species of Spruce in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau under Climate Change

We predicted the potential distribution of spruce under the future climate change with Picea likiangensis and P.purpurea in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution of the two species under two future climatic scenarios-2050s and 2070s. Further, we used ArcGIS software to determine the distribution area and spatial pattern of both species. The results indicatedthat:(1)Southwestern Sichuan and eastern Tibet regions were the potential distribution areas of P.likiangensis, while northwestern Sichuan, southern Gansu, southeastern Qinghai and eastern Tibet were the areas that would favor the potential distribution for P.purpurea. (2)In two future climatic periods, distribution areas of P.likiangensis generally increase, whereas, in case of P.purpurea, the distribution areas first increase and then decrease. However, the area of the total suitable distribution increase toso me extent, compared with the area of current distribution. (3)The potential distribution of P.likiangensis was likely to disperse towards north while P.purpurea to the west. (4)Moreover, the precipitation of warmest quarter and the mean temperature of warmest quarter were the primary climatic factors affecting the distribution of P.likiangensis and P.purpurea. This study can provide a theoretical basis and reference value for the sustainable management and conservation of P.likiangensis and P.purpurea under climate change scenarios.