穿龙薯蓣种群濒危机制的连续时间马尔可夫过程分析

依据吉林省三岔子林业局、松江河林业局, 黑龙江省帽儿山林场、凉水保护区实验地资料, 建立了穿龙薯蓣种群濒危机制的CTM(Continuous Time Markov Approach)模型。运用该模型进行了穿龙薯蓣种群随海拔高度的演化趋势预测和自然、人为因素影响程度的对比分析。研究结果表明:2700~2 900 m 区间穿龙薯蓣种群密度相对稳定, 长势相对良好, 其它地段较差。受自然和人为因素的影响, 穿龙薯蓣种群总体濒危, 但影响因子周期长短不一, 有些因子可以人为控制、有些则是自然发生的。根据研究结果提出了相应的濒危保护措施。

Analysis on CTM process of endangered mechanism of Dioscorea nipponica population

The CTM(Continuous Time Markov Approach)model of Endangered Mechanism of Dioscorea nipponica Population, based on field data collected from San Chazi Forestry Bureau in Ji Lin, Songjiang River Forestry Bureau, Maoer Mountain Forest Field in Hei Longjiang and Liangshui Reserve Area, is constructed to make comparative analysis of evolution trend forecast with altitude of Dioscorea nipponica population and influenced extents of natural and artificial factors.Research results show that between 2 700~2 900 m, the population density of Dioscorea nipponica is relatively stable and grows very well while the states are worse in other areas.Affected by natural as well as artificial factors, Dioscorea nipponica population is endangered as a whole.However, the influencing cycle of each factor is different because some of them can be artificially controlled while other naturally occurred.The corresponding measurements of conserving endangered species are thus put forward.