Simulation of the effects of deer browsing on forest dynamics

I introduced forest dynamics to a deterministic herbivore-vegetation model to examine the effects of vertically stratified forest structure on the dynamics of the herbivore–vegetation system, the resilience and stable states of vegetation, and the interactions between deer populations and vegetation. I constructed a model based on data from field studies performed in Hokkaido, northern Japan. Three phases of state were identified for a given deer density: (1) understory vegetation is maintained with a equilibrium proportion of canopy gaps in the absence of deer; (2) if the equilibrium proportion of canopy gaps is greater than that in the equilibrium state in the absence of deer, the understory vegetation can be maintained; and (3) the understory vegetation cannot be maintained. At the boundary between phases 2 and 3, the herbivore population level had discontinuous effects on vegetation. When the deer density was held below the threshold, forest vegetation had resilience to recover to the equilibrium stable state at the given deer density, although the equilibrium canopy gap ratio and vegetation biomass differed with deer density. However, the forest vegetation–herbivore system could not be maintained in a stable state without artificial deer population management if food limitation was the only mechanism to keep the deer population at low levels. The deer population must be kept below the boundary between phases 1 and 2 to maintain the forest regeneration processes. The level cannot be determined by observing the deer population; careful observation of forest regeneration processes is required.