Predicting distribution of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Zygaena</Emphasis> moths on West Mediterranean islands. Implications for biogeography and conservation (Lepidoptera Zygaenidae)

In this paper a conservation biogeography approach has been applied to predict distribution and conservation priorities in West Mediterranean Zygaena moths. The presence/absence matrix data for mainland region and for the three largest islands (Sardinia, Corsica and Sicily) has been analyzed. The analyses have been performed on individual species and revealed that species distribution in the Mediterranean mainland can be largely predicted. However, Sardinia and Corsica islands showed highly impoverished faunas while Sicily did not revealed a lower richness than predicted. Logistic regressions at individual species level showed that several taxa, predicted to be present in Sardinia and Corsica are actually absent. For Sicily the opposite trend was obtained and several unpredicted species actually occur on this island. Conversely to butterflies, ecological traits did not differ between predicted and unpredicted Sicilian species, suggesting that ancient and stochastic colonisations are responsible for the occurrence of several species. Due to the very low probabilities that relict populations could re-colonize islands following possible extinctions, they are suggested to deserve particular conservation efforts. In particular, Z. orana from Sardinia, Z. corsica from Corsica and Z. trifolii, Z. purpuralis and Z. carniolica from Sicily showed distinctive biogeographic patterns and/or particular rarity.