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Empirical Estimation of R 0 for Unknown Transmission Functions: The Case of Chronic Wasting Disease in Alberta |
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| Authors: | Alex Potapov Evelyn Merrill Margo Pybus Mark A Lewis |
| Institution: | 1. Department of Biological Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.; 2. Centre for Mathematical Biology, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.; 3. Department of Mathematical and Statistical Sciences, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, T6G 2G1, Canada.; 4. Alberta Sustainable Resource Development, 6909–116 St., Edmonton, AB, T6H 4P2, Canada.; University of Florida, UNITED STATES, |
| Abstract: | We consider the problem of estimating the basic reproduction number R 0 from data on prevalence dynamics at the beginning of a disease outbreak. We derive discrete and continuous time models, some coefficients of which are to be fitted from data. We show that prevalence of the disease is sufficient to determine R 0. We apply this method to chronic wasting disease spread in Alberta determining a range of possible R 0 and their sensitivity to the probability of deer annual survival. |
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