THE EFFECTIVE SIZE OF A HIERARCHICALLY STRUCTURED POPULATION

A knowledge of the effective size of a population (N_e) is important in understanding its current and future evolutionary potential. Unfortunately, the effective size of a hierarchically structured population is not, in general, equal to the sum of its parts. In particular, the inbreeding structure has a major influence on N_e. Here I link N_e to Wright's hierarchical measures of inbreeding, F_IS and F_ST, for an island-structured population (or metapopulation) of size N_T. The influence of F_ST depends strongly on the degree to which island productivity is regulated. In the absence of local regulation (the interdemic model), interdemic genetic drift reduces N_e. When such drift is combined with local inbreeding under otherwise ideal conditions, the effects of F_IS and F_ST are identical: increasing inbreeding either within or between islands reduces N_e, with N_e = N_T/(1 + F_IS)(1 + F_ST) ? 2F_ISF_ST]. However, if islands are all equally productive because of local density regulation (the traditional island model), then N_e = N_T/(1 + F_IS)(1 –F_ST)] and the effect of F_ST is reversed. Under the interdemic model, random variation in the habitat quality (and hence productivity) of islands act to markedly decrease N_e. This variation has no effect under the island model because, by definition, all islands are equally productive. Even when no permanent island structure exists, spatial differences in habitat quality can significantly increase the overall variance in reproductive success of both males and females and hence lower N_e. Each of these basic results holds when other nonideal factors are added to the model. These factors, deviations from a 1:1 sex ratio, greater than Poisson variance in female reproductive success, and variation in male mating success due to polygynous mating systems, all act to lower N_e. The effects of male and female variance on N_e have important differences because only females affect island productivity. Finally, it is noted that to use these relationships, F_IS and F_ST must be estimated according to Wright's definition (and corrected to have a zero expectation under the null model). A commonly used partitioning (θ, θ_g) can be biased if either island size or the number of islands is small.